IESET.
Policies·ug_parish_development_model_2022

Uganda Parish Development Model rollout 2022

UGA·2022 present·enacted 2022-02-26·NRM Museveni sixth elected termcandidate
movestransfer expansionsectoral subsidy

What the policy did

Uganda rolled out the Parish Development Model as a local-development and poverty-reduction programme built around parish-level data, enterprise groups, revolving funds, agricultural extension, and financial inclusion. The policy channels public resources directly to small household enterprises and local production groups, seeking to move subsistence households into the money economy through credit, inputs, and local planning.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Parish-level revolving funds and household-enterprise support expand direct public transfers and near-cash support.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
The programme targets agricultural and microenterprise production categories with subsidised finance and inputs.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Large-scale universal or near-universal transfer programmes produce a three-order causal chain.
universal_transfer_programmes_labour_force_participation_declineinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansion
partial — Prime-age LFP fell by ≥1.0pp in 2/5 cases (threshold for SUPPORTED: ≥3). First-order improved in 3/4 cases. Mixed: consistent with the spec's design-d…
partial
Universal single-payer healthcare systems (NHS, Canadian Medicare) produce lower per-capita healthcare expenditure with equal or better life-expectancy outcomes than the US multi-payer system.
single_payer_cost_outcome_comparisoninferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansion
supported_subset — cost test PASSES (USA per-capita PPP $10957 vs GBR/CAN mean $5663, ratio 1.93x > 1.5); single-payer matched-or-beat USA on 4/5 tested outcome…
supported
Higher broad state-consumption burden proxies predict worse child-mortality nutrition-risk outcomes.
state_agriculture_controls_malnutritioninferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
PARTIAL — coef=+1.143, p=0.105 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial
Mandatory pharmacy-level generic substitution predicts pharmaceutical-spending reductions without worse mortality outcomes.
generic_substitution_mandate_savings_no_harminferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
REFUTED — coef=+811.4 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.00685
refuted
The American Rescue Plan Act (March 2021) expansion of the Child Tax Credit to USD 3000-3600 per child with full refundability and monthly disbursement (July-December 2021) produced a measurable and immediate decline in monthly child-poverty rate of at least 4 percentage points (Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia time-series), with the credit's December 2021 expiration producing a corresponding immediate reversal — providing high-frequency event-window evidence on near-instantaneous cash-transfer-to-poverty mechanics.
welfare_transfer_us_arpa_expanded_ctc_2021inferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
WEAKENED - SPM child poverty fell 4.5pp and rebounded 7.2pp; monthly CPSP and parental-LFP gates are not loaded
refuted
Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), characterised by forced collectivisation into People's Communes, Lysenkoist rejection of scientific agronomy, diversion of rural labour to backyard steel production, and cadre-competition-driven inflation of reported harvests, produced a canonical institutional-economic collapse that manifests as >=7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source or methodology family and measuring a different causal layer (demographic mortality, agricultural output, macroeconomic contraction, institutional coverage, human capital).
great_leap_forward_famine_output_collapse_1959_1961inferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']
run pending
UK post-1945 Attlee reforms (NHS, nationalisation of coal/rail/steel, expanded public housing) delivered measurable improvements in life expectancy and child mortality without undermining subsequent 1950s-1960s growth.
uk_attlee_reforms_output_health_outcomesinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansion
refuted — Only 0 of 3 primaries hold. Failed: life-expectancy, infant-mortality, 1950s growth. UK 1950s growth +1.69%/yr; LE gain +3.29y (peer-mean +4.45y); IMR…
refuted
China's combined social-protection expansion — urban dibao (1999, expanded 2003) plus rural dibao (2007 universalisation) plus rural-pension scheme NRPS (2009 launch reaching 459M+ enrollees by 2013) — reduced rural extreme-poverty headcount by at least 5 percentage points within five years (2009-2014) net of growth-channel effects, identified off province-staggered NRPS rollout 2009-2012 and province-level dibao-spending intensity in panel-FE design.
welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009inferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
PARTIAL - national poverty fell 16.0pp over 2010-2014, but province rollout/intensity data are missing for the net-of-growth claim
partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

References