IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009

China's combined social-protection expansion — urban dibao (1999, expanded 2003) plus rural dibao (2007 universalisation) plus rural-pension scheme NRPS (2009 launch reaching 459M+ enrollees by 2013) — reduced rural extreme-poverty headcount by at least 5 percentage points within five years (2009-2014) net of growth-channel effects, identified off province-staggered NRPS rollout 2009-2012 and province-level dibao-spending intensity in panel-FE design.

PARTIALengine/runs/welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009

PARTIAL - national poverty fell 16.0pp over 2010-2014, but province rollout/intensity data are missing for the net-of-growth claim

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether nrps rollout indicator is actually linked to better or worse rural extreme poverty headcount from 2000 to 2018.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. national poverty fell 16.0pp over 2010-2014, but province rollout/intensity data are missing for the net-of-growth claim

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2000 to 2018, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for province and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Nrps rollout indicator
  • Dibao spending per rural household
What we checked
  • Rural extreme poverty headcount
  • Rural consumption per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009
1007550250200020092018CHN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show rural_extreme_poverty_headcount across 1 sampled countries over 2000–2018.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-18T19:35:40Z

China's combined social-protection expansion — urban dibao (1999, expanded 2003) plus rural dibao (2007 universalisation) plus rural-pension scheme NRPS (2009 launch reaching 459M+ enrollees by 2013) — reduced rural extreme-poverty headcount by at least 5 percentage points within five years (2009-2014) net of growth-channel effects, identified off province-staggered NRPS rollout 2009-2012 and province-level dibao-spending intensity in panel-FE design.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the post-NRPS-rollout ATT on rural extreme-poverty at 5-year horizon is below minus-5pp, OR if dibao-intensity coefficient is non-negative on poverty, OR if Wald test of joint significance has p > 0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      did_cs_5yr_combined_dibao_nrps_rural_poverty
threshold: combined_att <= -5pp at 5yr AND dibao_coef < 0 AND wald_p < 0.10

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
province, year
Clustering
province
Sample
1 countries · 2000 – 2018
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD across CHN provinces using NRPS rollout timing 2009-2012. Pre-trend window 5 years, post-window 5 years. Decomposition by dibao-intensity coefficient.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
rural_extreme_poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level_pct
rural_consumption_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
log
nrps_rollout_indicator
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
indicator
dibao_spending_per_rural_household
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
log
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rural_to_urban_migration_share
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009

Verdict: PARTIAL - national poverty fell 16.0pp over 2010-2014, but province rollout/intensity data are missing for the net-of-growth claim

Exact Local Benchmark

  • Extreme poverty fell 16.0 pp from 2010 to 2014.
  • Gini fell 4.5 pp over the same window.
  • Real GDP per capita rose 33.3%, so the growth-channel separation remains unresolved locally.

Caveats

  • WDI has a strong national sign check, not the province-staggered NRPS/dibao design in the hypothesis.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY -> extreme_poverty_headcount (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.DDAY@2026-05-05T194939Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI -> gini_coefficient (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SI.POV.GINI@2026-05-05T194923Z.parquet)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD -> real_gdp_per_capita (data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD@2026-05-05T194645Z.parquet)

Generated by engine/runs/welfare_transfer_china_dibao_rural_pension_2009/replication.py at 2026-05-18T19:35:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.