IESET.
Policies·ug_lake_albert_oil_eacop_fid_2022

Uganda Lake Albert oil and EACOP final investment decision 2022

UGA·2022 – present·enacted 2022-02-01·NRM Museveni sixth elected termcandidate
movesenergy supply security↑sectoral subsidy↑trade openness↑

What the policy did

Uganda and project partners reached final investment decision on the Lake Albert oil development, covering the Tilenga and Kingfisher upstream projects and the export-pipeline route needed to commercialise production. The decision moved Uganda from discovery and negotiation into implementation of a national petroleum export project, with associated infrastructure, fiscal terms, land-access arrangements, and cross-border logistics.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
↑
energy supply security
regulatory.energy_supply_security
Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.
increased · moderate
higher supply-security posture (diversified, strategic reserves)
The FID advances domestic petroleum production and export infrastructure.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · weak
expanded sectoral subsidies
Petroleum-project fiscal terms and state coordination target a specific extractive sector.
↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · weak
more open trade
The export corridor integrates Uganda's oil production with regional and global markets.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Across a broad panel of countries 1960-2019, higher trade openness predicts faster long-run convergence of real GDP per capita toward the global frontier (the United States) than industrial-policy intensity does.
trade_openness_long_run_income_convergenceinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.energy_supply_security
PARTIAL — coef=+6.729e-18, p=0.00881; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.
nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effectinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.energy_supply_security
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
run pending
Canada’s long-run prosperity after the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (1988) and NAFTA (1994) is more associated with market openness than with national industrial-policy initiatives.
canada_market_liberalisation_vs_state_industry_1988_2024inferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'canada_post_1988' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
run pending
In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy.
export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidyinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
PARTIAL — coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.
estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred
viaregulatory.trade_openness
PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)
partial
Germany's industrial electricity prices diverged upward from a basket of comparable industrial peers (United States, France, Sweden, Norway, Finland) after the 2011 Energiewende pivot and the gap widened further through the 2014 nuclear-phase-out milestones and the 2022 gas crisis.
german_energiewende_industrial_cost_trajectoryinferred
viaregulatory.energy_supply_securityfiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.trade_openness
refuted — Germany's industrial GVA gap on 2015-2020 average is +0.095 log (wrong sign for industrial-cost-penalty story), placebo p=0.4444444444444444.
refuted
Major trade-liberalisation events — defined as sharp, policy-driven increases in trade-to-GDP openness sustained over at least 5 years — are associated with positive subsequent per-capita GDP growth over 10-year horizons, relative to matched non-liberalising controls.
trade_liberalisation_growth_effectinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.energy_supply_security
PARTIAL — ATT=+6.139e-12, p=0.285, N=584, treated_countries=29 (above α=0.10)
partial
Hong Kong's long-run income convergence to the productivity frontier without classic industrial policy (sectoral targeting, directed credit, national champions, or SOE promotion) matches or exceeds that of developmentalist East Asian comparators after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness.
hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparisoninferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
REFUTED — coef=-0.06133 (sign opposite claim +), p=7.33e-15
refuted

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor — Phase 1 launch (2015)
PAK·2015
match
1.9
sectoral subsidyenergy supply securitytrade openness
Proálcool sugar-ethanol fuel programme (Brazil, 1975)
BRA·1975
match
1.5
sectoral subsidyenergy supply security
France Plan Messmer — nuclear-programme acceleration (1974)
FRA·1974
match
1.5
energy supply securitysectoral subsidy
Qatar North Field LNG expansion
QAT·2021
match
1.5
sectoral subsidyenergy supply security
Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project commissioning
TZA·2024
match
1.5
energy supply securitysectoral subsidy
Luzon Economic Corridor (PGI flagship Philippines)
PHL·2024
match
1.5
sectoral subsidytrade opennessenergy supply security
Barakah nuclear plant full four-unit commercial operation
ARE·2024
match
1.4
energy supply securitysectoral subsidy
Belgium nuclear-power programme — Doel and Tihange commissioning (1974-1985)
BEL·1974
match
1.4
energy supply securitysectoral subsidy

References