Policies·th_sufficiency_economy_10th_plan_2007

Sufficiency Economy 10Th Plan 2007

THA·2006 – 2008candidate

movesfinancial deregulation↓rule of law↓property rights↓trade openness—

What the policy did

Thailand's Tenth National Economic and Social Development Plan (2007-2011), formulated under the post-coup Surayud interim government, codified the King Bhumibol-promoted Sufficiency Economy Philosophy as the official planning paradigm. The plan emphasised moderation, self-reliance and resilience over growth-maximising export orientation, guiding ministry budgets, NESDB indicators, and corporate-governance signalling for the period.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

financial deregulation

regulatory.financial_deregulation

Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.

decreased · weak

looser financial regulation

Plan favored prudential restraint and moderate leverage over aggressive deregulation.

↓

rule of law

institutional.rule_of_law

Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.

decreased · weak

weaker rule of law

Implemented under unelected interim government following 2006 coup undermined legitimacy.

↓

property rights

institutional.property_rights

Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.

decreased · weak

weaker property rights

Plan prioritised collective community resilience over private capital-rights expansion.

—

trade openness

regulatory.trade_openness

Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.

unchanged · weak

Sufficiency framing did not directly alter tariff levels but moderated FTA enthusiasm.

Enacted by

thailand_surayud_interim_2006_2008

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.

estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.property_rightsinstitutional.rule_of_law

PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)

partial

Singapore's long-run prosperity and frontier convergence are better predicted by extreme trade openness, strong rule of law, competitive product and services markets, and high economic freedom than by state ownership or industrial targeting alone.

singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_comboinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_lawinstitutional.property_rights

PARTIAL — coef=-0.0001143, p=0.713 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

partial

Across emerging-market and developing economies 1990-2020, higher expropriation risk — measured by ICRG expropriation risk index, Heritage investment-freedom score, and political-risk ratings — predicts shorter investment horizons (higher share of short-term investment, lower share of structures and machinery) and lower capital intensity in tradable sectors.

expropriation_risk_investment_horizoninferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_lawregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=-3.637, p=0.231 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Across a broad panel of economies 1980-2020, market reforms (privatisation, trade liberalisation, and price decontrol) produce durable gains in real GDP per capita growth only when rule-of-law scores exceed a minimum threshold (WGI Rule of Law > -0.5, approximately the 40th percentile of the global distribution).

rule_of_law_market_reform_complementarityinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_lawinstitutional.property_rights

REFUTED — coef=-0.1483 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00481

refuted

Starting from comparable 1945 post-war conditions — same ethnicity, language, pre-war German institutional and industrial inheritance, and with the GDR inheriting a larger share of pre-war industrial capital in Saxony and Thuringia — the Federal Republic's Soziale Marktwirtschaft (Ordoliberal market economy with welfare state) versus the German Democratic Republic's planned economy with administered prices, state-enterprise production, and soft budget constraints produced by 1989 a canonical divergence that pattern-matches >=7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from a different publisher or methodology family.

west_east_germany_economic_system_divergence_1950_1989inferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsinstitutional.rule_of_lawregulatory.trade_openness

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Australia’s long expansion after the Hawke-Keating reforms (1983–1996) — including tariff cuts, financial deregulation, competition-policy introduction, and fiscal consolidation — is better predicted by market liberalisation than by sector-specific state direction.

australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_runinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.property_rightsregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=-0.03935, p=0.076 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

El Salvador's FDI inflow, real-GDP growth, tourism arrivals, and business-formation rate accelerated under the Bukele era (2019-2024) relative to a Central American peer-country donor pool (Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Dominican Republic).

bukele_fdi_gdp_investment_climate_2019_2024inferred

viainstitutional.rule_of_lawinstitutional.property_rightsregulatory.trade_openness

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-0.697, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

partial

Across countries 1990-2020, higher capital-account openness (proxied by EFW area-4 freedom-to-trade-internationally sub- components covering capital controls, plus IMF AREAER-derived binary capital-control intensity where available) predicts higher subsequent 10-year real per-capita GDP growth, conditional on initial income, rule-of-law level, trade openness, and financial- development depth.

liberal_capital_account_openness_growth_premium_panelinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_lawregulatory.financial_deregulationinstitutional.property_rights

PARTIAL — coef=+1.115e-17, p=0.0255; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

property rightsrule of lawtrade openness

Thai Rak Thai Dissolution 2007

THA·2006

match

1.6

financial deregulationrule of lawproperty rightstrade openness

Russian annexation of Crimea 2014

RUS·2014