Policies·ve_recadi_multiple_exchange_rates_1983

RECADI multi-tier exchange-rate system (Venezuela, 1983)

VEN·1983 – 1989·enacted 1983-02-28candidate

movesfinancial deregulation↓trade openness↓rule of law↓

What the policy did

Régimen de Cambios Diferenciales administered by the Oficina de Régimen de Cambios Diferenciales (RECADI) set essential-import rate at 4.30 Bs/USD, priority-import rate at 6.00, and free-market rate floating (initially ~8-9 Bs/USD). Produced the largest corruption scandal of Venezuelan 20th century — preferential-rate allocation diverted. Abolished under Pérez-II "Gran Viraje" 1989.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

financial deregulation

regulatory.financial_deregulation

Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.

decreased · strong

looser financial regulation

↓

trade openness

regulatory.trade_openness

Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.

decreased · moderate

more protectionist

unintended / side-effect

↓

rule of law

institutional.rule_of_law

Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.

decreased · moderate · unintended

weaker rule of law

Allocation corruption undermined rule-of-law norms.

Enacted by

venezuela_herrera_copei_1979_1984

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.

estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_law

PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)

partial

Singapore's long-run prosperity and frontier convergence are better predicted by extreme trade openness, strong rule of law, competitive product and services markets, and high economic freedom than by state ownership or industrial targeting alone.

singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_comboinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_law

PARTIAL — coef=-0.0001143, p=0.713 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

partial

Across a broad panel of economies 1980-2020, market reforms (privatisation, trade liberalisation, and price decontrol) produce durable gains in real GDP per capita growth only when rule-of-law scores exceed a minimum threshold (WGI Rule of Law > -0.5, approximately the 40th percentile of the global distribution).

rule_of_law_market_reform_complementarityinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_law

REFUTED — coef=-0.1483 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00481

refuted

Across countries 1990-2020, higher capital-account openness (proxied by EFW area-4 freedom-to-trade-internationally sub- components covering capital controls, plus IMF AREAER-derived binary capital-control intensity where available) predicts higher subsequent 10-year real per-capita GDP growth, conditional on initial income, rule-of-law level, trade openness, and financial- development depth.

liberal_capital_account_openness_growth_premium_panelinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_lawregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=+1.115e-17, p=0.0255; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

Under Financial Secretary John Cowperthwaite (1961–1971) and successors, Hong Kong pursued near-laissez-faire economic policy — no capital controls, no industrial policy, minimal tariffs, low flat taxes, and light labour regulation; between 1960 and 1997 Hong Kong's GDP per capita rose from approximately $4,000 to $26,000 (2011 PPP), converging almost fully to UK levels and surpassing most continental European economies.

hong_kong_minimal_state_growth_miracle_1960_1997inferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_law

SUPPORTED — HKG/USA per-capita ratio 1997 = 0.80 (>=0.80); HKG annualised growth 1960-1997 = +5.22%/yr (>=5.0).

supported

Across emerging-market and developing economies 1990-2020, higher expropriation risk — measured by ICRG expropriation risk index, Heritage investment-freedom score, and political-risk ratings — predicts shorter investment horizons (higher share of short-term investment, lower share of structures and machinery) and lower capital intensity in tradable sectors.

expropriation_risk_investment_horizoninferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_lawregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=-3.637, p=0.231 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Across countries 1990-2020, accession to a substantive free-trade agreement (FTA) — defined as a WTO-notified preferential-trade agreement going beyond MFN with measurable bilateral tariff reductions — is followed by higher trade openness and higher per-capita real GDP growth in the post-accession 5-year window than in the matched pre-accession 5-year window.

liberal_free_trade_partner_growth_panel_1990_2020inferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessinstitutional.rule_of_law

PARTIAL — ATT=-4.069, p=0.264, N=1342, treated_countries=61 (above α=0.10)

partial

Australia’s long expansion after the Hawke-Keating reforms (1983–1996) — including tariff cuts, financial deregulation, competition-policy introduction, and fiscal consolidation — is better predicted by market liberalisation than by sector-specific state direction.

australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_runinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=-0.03935, p=0.076 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Massa-era stepped devaluations and multi-rate FX regime (2023)

ARG·2023

match

1.9

financial deregulationtrade openness

Cepo cambiario — FX controls regime

ARG·2011

match

1.7

financial deregulationtrade openness

Russian annexation of Crimea 2014

RUS·2014