IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·el_salvador_bukele_gdp_crime_tradeoff_2019_2024

El Salvador's homicide rate fell from 52 per 100,000 (2019) to 2.4 per 100,000 (2023) — a 95% reduction — under Bukele's Estado de Excepción security crackdown beginning March 2022.

This security improvement is associated with measurable GDP and FDI gains: El Salvador grew approximately 3.5% real in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023 per IMF NGDP_RPCH, outperforming Honduras and Guatemala — the structural comparators — for the first time since 2010. The pre-registered causal claim is that crime reduction via security crackdown (regardless of rule-of-law costs) produced positive economic returns through three channels: tourism recovery, FDI attraction in light manufacturing, and domestic consumer confidence, detectable as a positive cumulative average treatment effect on the treated (CATT) in a synthetic-control design with HND, GTM, NIC, and DOM as donor countries. The rule-of-law deterioration — mass imprisonment of approximately 75,000 persons, habeas corpus suspension, credible reports of wrongful detention — is a confounding factor coded as a separate variable and is not subsumed into the economic growth claim. The hypothesis tests only the economic-returns mechanism of crime reduction, not the normative legitimacy of the enforcement method.

PARTIALengine/runs/el_salvador_bukele_gdp_crime_tradeoff_2019_2024

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-0.5576, |gap|/pre_sd=0.96, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-0.5576, |gap|/pre_sd=0.96, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Estado de excepcion active
  • Homicide rate per 100k
What we checked
  • Income growth real
  • Cost-of-living adjusted income per person
  • Foreign investment inflows pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/el_salvador_bukele_gdp_crime_tradeoff_2019_2024
descriptive sketch · model not yet run
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-28T12:41:54Z

El Salvador's homicide rate fell from 52 per 100,000 (2019) to 2.4 per 100,000 (2023) — a 95% reduction — under Bukele's Estado de Excepción security crackdown beginning March 2022. This security improvement is associated with measurable GDP and FDI gains: El Salvador grew approximately 3.5% real in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023 per IMF NGDP_RPCH, outperforming Honduras and Guatemala — the structural comparators — for the first time since 2010. The pre-registered causal claim is that crime reduction via security crackdown (regardless of rule-of-law costs) produced positive economic returns through three channels: tourism recovery, FDI attraction in light manufacturing, and domestic consumer confidence, detectable as a positive cumulative average treatment effect on the treated (CATT) in a synthetic-control design with HND, GTM, NIC, and DOM as donor countries. The rule-of-law deterioration — mass imprisonment of approximately 75,000 persons, habeas corpus suspension, credible reports of wrongful detention — is a confounding factor coded as a separate variable and is not subsumed into the economic growth claim. The hypothesis tests only the economic-returns mechanism of crime reduction, not the normative legitimacy of the enforcement method.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the synthetic-control CATT on real GDP growth for SLV over 2022-2024 is not statistically positive at p_perm < 0.10 relative to the donor pool counterfactual, OR if the CATT on log GDP per capita is not positive and economically meaningful (> 2% cumulative above synthetic control), OR if FDI inflows show no differential increase for SLV post-2022 relative to donor countries.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_gdp_growth_plus_fdi_mechanism
threshold: CATT_2022_2024(real_gdp_growth) > 0 at p_perm < 0.10 AND CATT_2022_2024(log_gdp_per_capita) > 0.02 cumulative AND FDI_inflows_SLV_2022_2024 > FDI_synthetic_control_2022_2024

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Sample
5 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synthetic control (Abadie 2010) with SLV as treated unit, treatment date 2022-03-27, donor pool HND/GTM/DOM weighted on 2010-2021 GDP growth, GDP per capita, remittance share, and FDI pre-trends. CATT evaluated on real GDP growth and log GDP per capita 2022-2024. Secondary: Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD using annual panel. Mechanism test: two-stage regression of homicide_rate on estado_de_excepcion_active (first stage), then GDP outcomes on fitted homicide reduction (second stage), to estimate the economic return per unit of crime reduction. Confound separation: rule_of_law and freedom_house_score entered as controls to test whether GDP gains survive institutional-quality deterioration controls.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gdp_growth_real
outcome
imf:NGDP_RPCHtier 2
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
pct_change
gdp_per_capita_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log_level
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
tourism_arrivals
outcome
world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.ARVLtier 2
log_level
estado_de_excepcion_active
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for SLV from 2022-03-27 onward; 0 for all donor countriestier 5
binary
homicide_rate_per_100k
treatment
unodc:intentional_homicidetier 2
constructed:slv_pnc_officialtier 5
level
us_remittance_conditions
control
fred:LNS12000009tier 1
log_level
current_account_pct_gdp
control
imf:BCA_NGDPDtier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_RL.ESTtier 4
level
freedom_house_score
control
freedom_house:fiw_all_countriestier 4
level
military_spending_pct_gdp
control
sipri:milex_share_gdptier 3
level
population_total
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — el_salvador_bukele_gdp_crime_tradeoff_2019_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-0.5576, |gap|/pre_sd=0.96, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: El Salvador's homicide rate fell from 52 per 100,000 (2019) to 2.4 per 100,000 (2023) — a 95% reduction — under Bukele's Estado de Excepción security crackdown beginning March 2022. This security improvement is associated with measurable GDP and FDI gains: El Salvador grew approximately 3.5% real in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023 per IMF NGDP_RPCH, outperforming Honduras and Guatemala — the structural comparators — for the first time since 2010. The pre-registered causal claim is that crime reduction via security crackdown (regardless of rule-of-law costs) produced positive economic returns through three channels: tourism recovery, FDI attraction in light manufacturing, and domestic consumer confidence, detectable as a positive cumulative average treatment effect on the treated (CATT) in a synthetic-control design with HND, GTM, NIC, and DOM as donor countries. The rule-of-law deterioration — mass imprisonment of approximately 75,000 persons, habeas corpus suspension, credible reports of wrongful detention — is a confounding factor coded as a separate variable and is not subsumed into the economic growth claim. The hypothesis tests only the economic-returns mechanism of crime reduction, not the normative legitimacy of the enforcement method.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the synthetic-control CATT on real GDP growth for SLV over 2022-2024 is not statistically positive at p_perm < 0.10 relative to the donor pool counterfactual, OR if the CATT on log GDP per capita is not positive and economically meaningful (> 2% cumulative above synthetic control), OR if FDI inflows show no differential increase for SLV post-2022 relative to donor countries.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: SLV
  • event_year: 2019
  • n_donors: 4
  • donor_weights (top): {'HND': 0.6019, 'GTM': 0.3358, 'NIC': 0.0622, 'DOM': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 1.3269911862194523
  • pre_period_sd: 0.5830951894845299
  • mean_post_gap: -0.5576303475168742
  • end_period_gap: -1.0335829136624404
  • post_period_years: [2019, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 1.0
  • n_placebos: 0
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • imf:NGDP_RPCH; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → gdp_growth_real (outcome, n=10914)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (outcome, n=8360)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_pct_gdp (outcome, n=11635)
  • world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.ARVL → tourism_arrivals (outcome, n=5731)
  • fred:LNS12000009 → us_remittance_conditions (controls, n=54)
  • imf:BCA_NGDPD → current_account_pct_gdp (controls, n=10556)
  • sipri:milex_share_gdp → military_spending_pct_gdp (controls, n=8085)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → population_total (controls, n=17000)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-28T12:41:54+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

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