IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bitcoin_legal_tender_remittance_adoption_2021_2024

The Sep 2021 introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender plus the Chivo state-wallet launch and $30 per-adult BTC buy-in failed to produce a statistically significant change in El Salvador's total remittance volume or in the aggregate price of remittance services (World Bank remittance-cost series) relative to Central American and Caribbean peer countries.

The pre- registered claim is that in a synthetic-control design, SLV post-2021 remittance volume and remittance cost do not deviate from the counterfactual donor pool by more than a small magnitude, and that the share of remittances flowing through BTC/Chivo rails remained below 10% in any rolling 6-month window through 2024 per BCR monthly remittance reports. This hypothesis stands against the ex-ante proponent claim (Bukele government, Strike, Jack Mallers) that BTC legal tender would reduce remittance costs by replacing high-fee Western Union / MoneyGram corridors and would raise total remittance volume by enabling previously-unbanked recipients.

PARTIALengine/runs/bitcoin_legal_tender_remittance_adoption_2021_2024

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.85e+09, |gap|/pre_sd=3.4, p_perm=1; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether bitcoin legal tender active is actually linked to better or worse remittance inflows usd from 2010 to 2025.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+2.85e+09, |gap|/pre_sd=3.4, p_perm=1; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 2010 to 2025, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Bitcoin legal tender active
  • Chivo active
What we checked
  • Remittance inflows usd
  • Remittance share income
  • Remittance cost usd 200 avg
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bitcoin_legal_tender_remittance_adoption_2021_2024
1007550250201020182025SLVHNDGTMNICDOMJAMMEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show remittance_inflows_usd across 9 sampled countries over 2010–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bitcoin_legal_tender_remittance_adoption_2021_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bitcoin_legal_tender_remittance_adoption_2021_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-28T12:41:56Z

The Sep 2021 introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender plus the Chivo state-wallet launch and $30 per-adult BTC buy-in failed to produce a statistically significant change in El Salvador's total remittance volume or in the aggregate price of remittance services (World Bank remittance-cost series) relative to Central American and Caribbean peer countries. The pre- registered claim is that in a synthetic-control design, SLV post-2021 remittance volume and remittance cost do not deviate from the counterfactual donor pool by more than a small magnitude, and that the share of remittances flowing through BTC/Chivo rails remained below 10% in any rolling 6-month window through 2024 per BCR monthly remittance reports. This hypothesis stands against the ex-ante proponent claim (Bukele government, Strike, Jack Mallers) that BTC legal tender would reduce remittance costs by replacing high-fee Western Union / MoneyGram corridors and would raise total remittance volume by enabling previously-unbanked recipients.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is 'Bitcoin legal tender produced no material change in remittance volume or cost.' It is falsified (i.e., rejected in favour of the proponent story) if any of: (a) synthetic-control CATT on log(remittance_inflows_usd) over 2021Q4-2024Q4 is positive at p_perm < 0.05 and magnitude > 10% of pre-treatment level, OR (b) synthetic-control CATT on remittance_cost_usd_200_avg is negative at p_perm < 0.05 and magnitude > 2 percentage points, OR (c) the Chivo-share- of-remittances exceeds 10% in any rolling 6-month window 2022-2024. Support requires none of (a)(b)(c) to be met.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_cost_and_volume_plus_chivo_share_mechanism
threshold: CATT_2021Q4_2024Q4(log_remittance_inflows) NOT > 0.10 at p_perm < 0.05 AND CATT_2021Q4_2024Q4(remittance_cost) NOT < -2pp at p_perm < 0.05 AND max_rolling_6m(chivo_remittance_share) < 0.10

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
9 countries · 2010 – 2025
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synthetic control (Abadie 2010) with SLV treated 2021-09-07 onward, Central American and Caribbean donor pool weighted on 2010-2021 remittance-inflow and remittance-cost pre-trends. Secondary: Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD with monthly remittance data. Mechanism test: the Chivo-share-of- remittance metric is a direct behavioural variable; if it stays < 5% throughout 2021-2024, the ex-ante proponent claim is directly refuted regardless of aggregate outcome.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
remittance_inflows_usd
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DTtier 2
sv_bcr:Remesastier 2
log_level
remittance_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
level
remittance_cost_usd_200_avg
outcome
world_bank_remittance_prices:RPWtier 2
level
chivo_remittance_share
outcome
sv_bcr:Remesastier 2
level
bitcoin_legal_tender_active
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for SLV from 2021-09-07 through 2025-01-29; 0 otherwisetier 5
binary
chivo_active
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for SLV from 2021-09-07 onwardtier 5
binary
us_employment_hispanic
control
fred:LNS12000009tier 1
log_level
us_gdp
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
log_level
oil_price_brent
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
recipient_country_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bitcoin_legal_tender_remittance_adoption_2021_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.85e+09, |gap|/pre_sd=3.4, p_perm=1; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Sep 2021 introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender plus the Chivo state-wallet launch and $30 per-adult BTC buy-in failed to produce a statistically significant change in El Salvador's total remittance volume or in the aggregate price of remittance services (World Bank remittance-cost series) relative to Central American and Caribbean peer countries. The pre- registered claim is that in a synthetic-control design, SLV post-2021 remittance volume and remittance cost do not deviate from the counterfactual donor pool by more than a small magnitude, and that the share of remittances flowing through BTC/Chivo rails remained below 10% in any rolling 6-month window through 2024 per BCR monthly remittance reports. This hypothesis stands against the ex-ante proponent claim (Bukele government, Strike, Jack Mallers) that BTC legal tender would reduce remittance costs by replacing high-fee Western Union / MoneyGram corridors and would raise total remittance volume by enabling previously-unbanked recipients.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is 'Bitcoin legal tender produced no material change in remittance volume or cost.' It is falsified (i.e., rejected in favour of the proponent story) if any of: (a) synthetic-control CATT on log(remittance_inflows_usd) over 2021Q4-2024Q4 is positive at p_perm < 0.05 and magnitude > 10% of pre-treatment level, OR (b) synthetic-control CATT on remittance_cost_usd_200_avg is negative at p_perm < 0.05 and magnitude > 2 percentage points, OR (c) the Chivo-share- of-remittances exceeds 10% in any rolling 6-month window 2022-2024. Support requires none of (a)(b)(c) to be met.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: SLV
  • event_year: 2021
  • n_donors: 8
  • donor_weights (top): {'JAM': 0.3063, 'NIC': 0.2504, 'HND': 0.2448, 'ECU': 0.1985, 'GTM': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 2040947432.882866
  • pre_period_sd: 836430438.1630719
  • mean_post_gap: 2850118155.225643
  • end_period_gap: 2450214132.242716
  • post_period_years: [2021, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 1.0
  • n_placebos: 0
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT; sv_bcr:Remesas → remittance_inflows_usd (outcome, n=9466)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS → remittance_share_gdp (outcome, n=8915)
  • fred:LNS12000009 → us_employment_hispanic (controls, n=54)
  • fred:GDPC1 → us_gdp (controls, n=79)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price_brent (controls, n=40)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → recipient_country_gdp (controls, n=14131)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-28T12:41:56+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated on BCR remittance series (monthly since 2010, includes billetera-digital decomposition since Oct 2021) and World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide quarterly series. Donor pool peers have comparable US-corridor remittance dependency and Central American / Caribbean migration patterns. Pre- registration date for v1: first git-commit timestamp of this file supersedes prior draft.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.