IESET.
Policies·us_dodd_frank_2010

Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act 2010

USA·2010 ·enacted 2010-07-21·Democratic trifecta (Obama administration + 111th Congress)candidate
movesfinancial deregulationsectoral licensing

What the policy did

Post-crisis financial regulation: created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the Volcker Rule (proprietary trading restrictions on deposit- insured banks), stricter capital + liquidity requirements, enhanced prudential standards for systemically important institutions, orderly liquidation authority, and OTC derivatives clearing requirements. Partial re-regulation of the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley era. Materially tightened financial regulation; critics argue compliance costs disproportionately burdened community banks. 2018 Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act softened some provisions for smaller banks.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · strong
looser financial regulation
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · moderate
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Major episodes of financial deregulation — the 1999 US Gramm-Leach- Bliley repeal of Glass-Steagall, the 1986 UK Financial Services Act ("Big Bang"), Chile's 1974-1981 banking liberalisation, Sweden's late-1980s credit-market liberalisation, and Japan's 1996-2001 Big Bang — are followed within 10 years by higher-than-baseline incidence of banking crises, measured by the Laeven-Valencia Systemic Banking Crisis Database, and by elevated credit-to-GDP gaps per BIS.
financial_deregulation_crisis_vulnerabilityinferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulation
SUPPORTED — sign matches claim +, ATT=+0.04145, p=3.34e-07, N=302, treated_countries=8
supported
Liberal democracies experience monotonic positional drift toward larger, more redistributive states across multi-decade horizons.
liberal_democracy_managerial_flywheel_driftinferred
viaregulatory.sectoral_licensingregulatory.financial_deregulation
REFUTED — median final drift = -3.00 (13/26 positive, share = 50%). The corpus does not show monotonic statist drift across the liberal-democracy panel.
refuted
Across US states 2000-2022, higher occupational-licensing intensity in licensed service sectors (proxied by share of state workforce requiring a state-issued license, derived from BLS Current Population Survey supplements) is associated with higher consumer prices in the affected service sectors and lower employment in those sectors, conditional on state per-capita income, demographic composition, and rural/urban share.
classical_occupational_licensing_consumer_loss_us_state_panelinferred
viaregulatory.sectoral_licensingregulatory.financial_deregulation
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['bls:cpi_services_subindex', 'bls:ces_state_employment']
run pending
US business-dynamism measures — the firm-formation rate (new establishments per 1000 working-age population), the job- reallocation rate, and the share of employment in firms aged 0-5 — declined materially over 1980-2020.
austrian_kirzner_entrepreneurship_business_dynamism_decline_us_1980_2020inferred
viaregulatory.sectoral_licensingregulatory.financial_deregulation
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['bls:business_dynamics_statistics_firm_births', 'bls:business_dynamics_statistics_young_firm_e…
run pending
The 2022-2026 window saw rhetorical and policy-stated revival of Western large-scale nuclear power: France committed to EPR2 fleet (6 + 8 reactors by 2050) under loi accélération du nucléaire 2023; UK confirmed Sizewell C investment FID 2024 + Small Modular Reactor (SMR) competitive selection 2024-2025; US Vogtle Unit 4 commercial start July 2024 + several SMR / advanced-reactor licensing applications; Japan re-pivoted to nuclear restart + lifetime extension (2023 GX framework permits >60-year operation); Sweden, Finland, Netherlands, Belgium reversed phase-out policies.
nuclear_revival_2023_2026_western_construction_startsinferred
viaregulatory.sectoral_licensingregulatory.financial_deregulation
PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0; claim direction ambiguous
partial
The 2007-2009 global financial crisis originated in household-debt-financed consumption sustaining aggregate demand despite stagnant real wages, a Minsky-plus-Marx pattern.
gfc_household_debt_wage_stagnation_linkinferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulation
PARTIAL — coef=-0.01111, p=0; claim direction not auto-inferred
partial
In an OECD panel 2000-2023, increases in OECD Product Market Regulation (PMR) stringency and increases in regulatory uncertainty (proxied by year-to-year changes in the OECD PMR sub-indices) are negatively associated with private non-residential investment as a share of GDP, with effects concentrated in capital-intensive long-duration sectors.
hayek_regulatory_uncertainty_investment_chillinginferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulation
REFUTED — coef=-3.98 (sign opposite claim +), p=0
refuted
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage financial freedom in 2024 have higher latest-available account ownership than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_financial_freedom_account_ownership_current_gapinferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulationregulatory.sectoral_licensing
SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=6.431e-12
supported

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.