IESET.
Policies·uk_autumn_budget_2024_tax_package

UK Autumn Budget 2024 — tax-raising package

GBR·2024 present·enacted 2024-10-30·Labour majority (Starmer)candidate
movestax progressivitytax capitalspending level

What the policy did

Chancellor Rachel Reeves's first Budget, 30 October 2024, the largest tax-raising Budget since 1993 at ~£40bn/year. Employer Class 1 NI rate raised from 13.8% to 15% and secondary threshold lowered from £9,100 to £5,000 (from April 2025), ~£25bn/year. Capital gains main rates raised to 18%/24% (aligned with property rates) from 30 October 2024. Inheritance tax extended to unspent pension pots (from April 2027) and agricultural / business property relief capped at £1m (from April 2026). Stamp duty surcharge on additional properties raised to 5%. Non-dom regime abolished, replaced by residence-based regime. VAT added to private school fees (January 2025). Revised fiscal rule targeted Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities rather than PSND, raising borrowing headroom for investment by ~£50bn.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
increased · moderate
more progressive (higher top rates, wider spread, larger targeted credits)
Capital gains rises, IHT extensions, non-dom abolition, private school VAT fall on higher-income / wealth households.
tax capital
fiscal.tax_capital
Taxation of capital income (dividends, capital gains, inheritance, wealth). Distinct from corporate rate.
increased · strong
higher capital income tax
CGT rate rises, IHT extension to pensions, agricultural/business property cap.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
~£70bn/year additional spending enabled by tax package and revised fiscal rule.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Large-scale universal or near-universal transfer programmes produce a three-order causal chain.
universal_transfer_programmes_labour_force_participation_declineinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_capital
partial — Prime-age LFP fell by ≥1.0pp in 2/5 cases (threshold for SUPPORTED: ≥3). First-order improved in 3/4 cases. Mixed: consistent with the spec's design-d…
partial
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have lower latest-available extreme-poverty headcount.
heritage_tax_burden_extreme_poverty_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_capital
PARTIAL — controlled coefficient not decisive (coef=-1.28, p=0.2307)
partial
Post-apartheid South African tax structure (top marginal income rate raised to 45 percent in 2017, capital-gains inclusion ratio raised 2012 + 2016, recurring property-tax effective burden via municipal rates) produced a measurable reduction in the South African top-1 pretax income share over 1995-2024 vs SADC synthetic comparator pool, with the recurring property-tax channel contributing more than the marginal-income-rate channel to the distributional effect.
tax_inequality_south_africa_property_tax_burdeninferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_capital
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=5, donors=0)
run pending
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available gross-capital-formation share.
heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_capital
PARTIAL — controlled coefficient not decisive (coef=0.6927, p=0.2746)
partial
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available private-credit depth.
heritage_tax_burden_private_credit_depth_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_capital
REFUTED — controlled market-score coefficient has opposite sign and p=6.613e-05
refuted
Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.
welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred
viafiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available high-technology export share.
heritage_tax_burden_high_tech_exports_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_capital
REFUTED — controlled market-score coefficient has opposite sign and p=0.0414
refuted
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available tertiary enrollment.
heritage_tax_burden_tertiary_enrollment_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_capital
REFUTED — controlled market-score coefficient has opposite sign and p=0.004933
refuted

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.