Policies·tr_lira_crisis_brunson_2018

August 2018 lira crisis and Brunson sanctions (Turkey)

TUR·2018 – 2018·enacted 2018-08-10·AKP + MHPcandidate

movescentral bank independence↓financial deregulation↓

What the policy did

US sanctions over the detention of pastor Andrew Brunson and associated doubling of steel/aluminium tariffs on 10 Aug 2018 triggered a lira crash from ~4.5/USD to ~7/USD within a week, peak 7.24 on 13 Aug. CBRT initially resisted hiking amid presidential opposition to rate increases, then hiked policy rate 625bp to 24% on 13 Sep 2018. Swap restrictions on offshore TRY lending imposed by BDDK. Brunson released 12 Oct 2018; sanctions lifted. Crisis exposed Turkey's dollar-liability mismatch and set the template for the 2021-22 episode.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

central bank independence

monetary.central_bank_independence

De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.

decreased · moderate

lower independence (fiscal dominance, politicised appointments)

Presidential rhetoric against rate hikes during crisis; governor dismissed months later.

↓

financial deregulation

regulatory.financial_deregulation

Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.

decreased · moderate

looser financial regulation

BDDK limits on offshore swap market to squeeze short-sellers.

Enacted by

turkey_erdogan_presidential_system_2018_2023

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Major episodes of financial deregulation — the 1999 US Gramm-Leach- Bliley repeal of Glass-Steagall, the 1986 UK Financial Services Act ("Big Bang"), Chile's 1974-1981 banking liberalisation, Sweden's late-1980s credit-market liberalisation, and Japan's 1996-2001 Big Bang — are followed within 10 years by higher-than-baseline incidence of banking crises, measured by the Laeven-Valencia Systemic Banking Crisis Database, and by elevated credit-to-GDP gaps per BIS.

financial_deregulation_crisis_vulnerabilityinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

SUPPORTED — sign matches claim +, ATT=+0.04145, p=3.34e-07, N=302, treated_countries=8

supported

Liberal democracies experience monotonic positional drift toward larger, more redistributive states across multi-decade horizons.

liberal_democracy_managerial_flywheel_driftinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulationmonetary.central_bank_independence

REFUTED — median final drift = -3.00 (13/26 positive, share = 50%). The corpus does not show monotonic statist drift across the liberal-democracy panel.

refuted

Truss 2022 mini-budget shows that unfunded fiscal expansion above the ZLB triggers sharp bond-market and currency responses through expected-inflation and risk-premium channels.

unfunded_fiscal_expansion_above_zlb_bond_market_responseinferred

viamonetary.central_bank_independence

SUPPORTED — GBP/USD trough on 2022-09-26 (1.0703) was 5.02% below the 2022-09-22 pre-announcement close (1.1269); log-decline +0.0515 clears the 3.0% threshold …

supported

UK Truss mini-budget 2022 gilt crisis reflected market confidence and institutional-framework rupture rather than an MMT-predicted hard fiscal limit, because the BoE restored order by intervening as issuer.

uk_truss_mini_budget_currency_sovereign_mechanisminferred

viamonetary.central_bank_independence

partial — Both mechanism legs are directionally consistent but at least one fails the SUPPORTED threshold: FX leg holds (5.02% trough decline); yield leg partia…

partial

Argentina's 2001-2002 crisis — convertibility regime collapse, December 2001 corralito freeze on bank deposits, January 2002 currency-board abandonment, sovereign default, pesification of bank balance sheets, and real-GDP contraction of >= 10% peak-to-trough — is the canonical case of a hard-peg / currency-board collapse compounded by banking-system suspension.

banking_crisis_argentina_2001_corralito_canonicalinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulationmonetary.central_bank_independence

SUPPORTED

supported

The 2007-2009 global financial crisis originated in household-debt-financed consumption sustaining aggregate demand despite stagnant real wages, a Minsky-plus-Marx pattern.

gfc_household_debt_wage_stagnation_linkinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=-0.01111, p=0; claim direction not auto-inferred

partial

In an OECD panel 2000-2023, increases in OECD Product Market Regulation (PMR) stringency and increases in regulatory uncertainty (proxied by year-to-year changes in the OECD PMR sub-indices) are negatively associated with private non-residential investment as a share of GDP, with effects concentrated in capital-intensive long-duration sectors.

hayek_regulatory_uncertainty_investment_chillinginferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

REFUTED — coef=-3.98 (sign opposite claim +), p=0

refuted

Argentine quarterly real GDP, having contracted in 2024H1 under the Milei stabilisation shock, recovers along a trajectory that by Q4 2025 closes at least 50% of the peak-to-trough output gap observed during the shock's worst quarter, and by Q4 2026 returns to or exceeds the pre-Milei (Q4 2023) real-GDP level.

milei_shock_therapy_output_recovery_trajectoryinferred

viamonetary.central_bank_independenceregulatory.financial_deregulation

partial - Level-recovery legs hold (2025 = +3.0%, 2026 = +6.4%) but ARG cumulative 2024-2026 log-deviation +8.1% does NOT exceed peer mean +14.1% — recovery, bu…

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Massa-era stepped devaluations and multi-rate FX regime (2023)

ARG·2023

match

1.7

financial deregulationcentral bank independence

Mexican peso devaluation and debt moratorium (1982)

MEX·1982

match

1.5

financial deregulationcentral bank independence

Malaysia ringgit capital controls and peg 1998

MYS·1998