Policies·se_temporary_aliens_act_2016

Temporary Aliens Act — tightened asylum and residence rules (Sweden 2016)

SWE·2016 – 2021·enacted 2016-07-20·SAP + MP minority (contested within MP)candidate

What the policy did

Lag (2016:752) om tillfälliga begränsningar av möjligheten att få uppehållstillstånd i Sverige, in force 20 July 2016 in response to the 2015 asylum peak of ~163,000 claims. Switched permanent residence permits to three-year temporary permits for subsidiary-protection and Convention-refugee status, tightened family reunification, and aligned Sweden with EU-minimum asylum standards — the sharpest single-year restriction of Swedish migration policy in the post-war era. Made permanent via Utlänningslag amendments in 2021.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

immigration openness

regulatory.immigration_openness

Immigration policy openness — work visas, family reunification, asylum processing, border enforcement posture.

decreased · strong

more restrictive (lower caps, tighter enforcement)

Temporary permits replace permanent; family reunification tightened to EU minimum.

Enacted by

sweden_lofven_sap_2014_2021

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

The net fiscal contribution of immigrants (taxes paid minus public services + transfers received, measured in lifetime NPV terms) varies systematically by (a) origin-country institutional quality, (b) skill level at arrival, (c) age at arrival, (d) duration of residence, and (e) legal status (working-age visa / family reunification / asylum).

immigration_net_fiscal_contribution_by_origin_skill_durationinferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

SUPPORTED — coef=-1.127 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0206

supported

Per-capita crime rates (measured by police-recorded offences per 100k population, by offence type) among foreign-born residents in developed destination countries are NOT systematically higher than among native-born residents once age, gender, and socioeconomic status are controlled.

immigration_crime_rate_vs_native_controlledinferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no decomposition channel loaded; missing: ['constructed: % of group aged 15-34 (primary offending age band); WDI + destination-count…

run pending

Israel's 2000-2024 transformation into a high-tech-export-led economy ("Start-Up Nation") produced a sustained labour-productivity acceleration, services-export composition shift, and high-skilled-employment expansion exceeding OECD peers without comparable defence-tech / venture-capital ecosystems.

mena_israel_high_tech_economy_2000_2024inferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-1.21e+04, |gap|/pre_sd=17, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

partial

The 1965 US Hart-Celler immigration reform replaced national-origin quotas with a family-reunification + skill-based system, producing a multi-decade shift in the composition and scale of US migrant inflows.

demo_us_hart_celler_1965_legacyinferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=+5.192, z=+46; claim direction ambiguous

partial

Higher market-compatible regulatory quality predicts stronger migration-opportunity and labor-market openness proxies.

migration_labor_market_openness_qolinferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

PARTIAL — coef=+6.325e+04, p=0.369 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

partial

Precautionary-principle-based regulation in the EU produces a three-order causal chain relative to the US regulatory baseline.

precautionary_regulation_innovation_productivity_gap_eu_usinferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

PARTIAL — ATT=+8.614e+04, p=0, N=260, treated_countries=1; claim direction ambiguous

partial

Australia's skill-stream-dominant immigration policy (skill stream ~60-70% of permanent migration since 1996) is associated with above-comparator gains in foreign-born tertiary share and labour-force-participation contribution.

demo_australia_high_skill_migrationinferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'skill_stream_share' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

run pending

Canada's points-based immigration system (introduced 1967, enhanced 2002 IRPA) selects on human capital and produces a foreign-born workforce with above-average tertiary attainment.

demo_canada_points_system_immigrationinferred

viaregulatory.immigration_openness

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'points_system_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

run pending

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Austrian 2015-2016 refugee reception and Obergrenze

AUT·2015

match

1.3

immigration opennessimmigration openness

Operation Sovereign Borders

EU-Turkey Statement on migration (Mar 2016)

DEU, TUR·2016