Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
The 2023 Bolsa Família relaunch, enacted via Medida Provisória 1.164 (later Lei 14.601/2023), restored and expanded the conditional cash-transfer programme renamed by the Bolsonaro government as Auxílio Brasil. Lula's third administration set a R$600 minimum benefit plus per-child top-ups, restored conditionality on school attendance and child health, and re-tightened means testing. The intended effect is poverty reduction via a more generous, demographically targeted CCT integrated with the Cadastro Único registry.
Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.
Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".
Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.