IESET.
Movements·thailand_srettha_pheu_thai_2023_2024

Srettha Thavisin — Pheu Thai-led post-Move-Forward coalition (2023-2024)

THA·2023 – 2024·Pheu Thai-led 11-party coalition including Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation, Democrat, Chartthaipattana — the 'security-consensus' pact that excluded the first-placed Move Forward Party from government despite its 151/500 seats
Leaders: Srettha Thavisin (PM Aug 2023 - Aug 2024, ex-Sansiri property CEO) · Paetongtarn Shinawatra (Pheu Thai leader, deputy) · Phumtham Wechayachai (Deputy PM, Commerce then Defence) · Anutin Charnvirakul (Deputy PM, Interior, Bhumjaithai leader) · Pichai Chunhavajira (Finance Minister from May 2024) · Julapun Amornvivat (Deputy Finance Minister, digital-wallet architect) · Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput (BoT Governor)
positionsdevelopmentalismsocial_democraticpost_keynesianclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Technocratic Pheu Thai under the "security-consensus" coalition — a Pheu Thai-led cabinet formed via an anti-Move-Forward pact that brought former junta-aligned parties (Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation) and Bhumjaithai into government in exchange for blocking the first-placed Move Forward from the premiership. Srettha, an ex-property-developer CEO imported directly into the PM slot, framed the programme as "economic rescue" through demand stimulus, tourism promotion, and targeted FDI pitches. Economic school: Thaksinist populist-left continuation with a business- friendly veneer — the 10,000-baht digital-wallet universal cash handout (announced 2023, recalibrated 2024 toward a means-tested rollout funded by supplementary budget rather than digital-rupee- style token), LPG and electricity price caps, diesel-excise cuts, minimum-wage trajectory toward 400 baht, visa-free tourism expansion, and a land-bridge mega-project (Chumphon-Ranong ~1 trillion baht concept linking Andaman and Gulf coasts). Stance toward the monarchy accommodative — lèse-majesté prosecutions not reversed; Thaksin's return from exile 22 Aug 2023 on reduced sentence by royal pardon was part of the political settlement. Sits centre-left economically, pragmatic-business on industrial policy, accommodating-royalist on the institutional axis. Popularity / seats: 2023 election Move Forward took 151/500 seats on ~38% party- list vote, Pheu Thai 141/500, Bhumjaithai 71/500, PPRP 40/500, UTN 36/500, Democrat 25/500; Srettha won the 14 August 2023 PM vote with 482 of 747 joint-session votes (House + appointed Senate) after Move Forward's Pita Limjaroenrat was blocked by Senate. Srettha approval averaged 30-45% over his 12 months. On 14 August 2024 the Constitutional Court removed Srettha for ethics violations related to a cabinet appointment, and on 16 August 2024 Paetongtarn Shinawatra was confirmed as PM — the swap triggered by the court rather than by election.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
10,000-baht digital-wallet universal-then-targeted handout budgeted ~450-500bn baht — largest single-stroke cash transfer in Thai history.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Supplementary budget for digital wallet; public-debt ceiling kept at 70% post-COVID; tourism and infra off-budget borrowing.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
Energy price caps on diesel, electricity, LPG; land-bridge and EEC continuation.
↓
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
decreased · weak
less flexible (stronger employment protection)
Stepwise minimum-wage increases toward 400-baht floor announced 2024.
↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · weak
more open trade
Visa-free regime expanded to China, India, Russia, Taiwan; EU FTA talks reopened.
↓
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · moderate
weaker judicial independence
Constitutional Court's ability to remove a sitting PM on ethics grounds (Srettha case, 14 Aug 2024) and dissolve Move Forward (7 Aug 2024) entrenched judicial veto.
—
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
unchanged · weak
No major rollback of 2017-constitution framework; lèse-majesté prosecutions continued under coalition.
—
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
unchanged · weak
Srettha publicly pressured BoT to cut rates but formal independence preserved; BoT held rates through 2024.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
cash_transfer_poverty_effects
not yet written
minimum_wage_employment_effect

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
developmentalism
Land bridge, EEC continuity, targeted FDI pitches.
partial
social_democratic
Cash transfer + minimum wage trajectory; monarchy accommodation and judicial dependence limit the alignment.
aligned
post_keynesian
Digital-wallet handout rationale is Keynesian demand boost.
opposed
classical_liberal
Large-scale transfer and price caps; institutional framework inherited from 2017 junta constitution.

References

Notes

Separate movement record from Paetongtarn preserves the distinct personnel and programme framing (Srettha as technocrat-outsider vs Paetongtarn as Shinawatra-family restoration), even though the coalition composition and policy programme are broadly continuous. Digital-wallet policy is coded under the Srettha movement because it was his signature announcement; any material modification under Paetongtarn would be captured by a separate enactment block.