First-term Merkel stewardship between two shocks: inheriting the Schröder Agenda-2010 reforms and responding to the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Economic school: ordoliberal-CDU fiscal-rules orientation softened by SPD partner and crisis Keynesianism. Defining episodes: VAT rise from 16% to 19% (Jan 2007) part-financing corporate-tax reform; Konjunkturpaket I (Nov 2008 €50bn) and Konjunkturpaket II (Jan 2009 €50bn) car-scrappage bonus (Abwrackprämie), infrastructure, and a Kurzarbeit work-sharing expansion credited with limiting unemployment rise; Financial Market Stabilisation Fund / SoFFin (Oct 2008 €480bn envelope) recapitalising Hypo Real Estate and Commerzbank; Bad-Bank Act (Jul 2009). Constitutional debt brake (Schuldenbremse) enshrined in Grundgesetz Art. 109/115 (2009). Left-right: centrist ordoliberal-corporatist. Popularity: CDU/CSU 35.2% (2005 vote); lost Landtage in North Rhine-Westphalia, Hessen; 2009 federal election CDU/CSU 33.8%, SPD collapsed to 23.0% (historic low). Coherence: high — disciplined crisis response within ordoliberal fiscal constraints.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes