IESET.
Movements·ecuador_correa_alianza_pais_i_2007_2013

Rafael Correa first term — 21st-century socialism, 2008 constitution, selective default

ECU·20072013·Alianza PAIS (Patria Altiva i Soberana)
Leaders: Rafael Correa (President 2007-2017) · Ricardo Patiño (Finance 2007; Foreign Minister later) · Fausto Ortiz (Finance 2007-2008) · Diego Borja (Finance 2009-2010) · Patricio Rivera (Finance 2010-2015)
positionspost_keynesiandevelopmentalismchicago_monetarism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Correa I launched "Revolución Ciudadana" 21st-century socialism with institutional rewrite + resource nationalism as pillars. (a) Economic school: Bolivarian heterodox-developmentalist + Keynesian counter- cyclical — 2008 Montecristi Constitution (ratified Sep 2008, 64%) placed "sumak kawsay"/buen vivir, expanded state role, made central-bank autonomy explicit-but-coordinated with Executive; selective sovereign- debt default Dec 2008 on "illegitimate" 2012 and 2030 Global bonds (~USD 3.2bn) repurchased at ~35 cents on dollar 2009; oil-contract renegotiation from production-sharing to service-contract model (Ley de Hidrocarburos reform Jul 2010); mining code Jan 2009; expanded Bono de Desarrollo Humano cash transfer; CETES + dollarization maintained (country dollarised since 2000). (b) Left-right: left; Bolivarian axis aligned with Chávez-era ALBA project. (c) Dated policies: Constitution Sep 2008, selective default Dec 2008, mining code Ene 2009, oil contract-model reform Jul 2010, 30 Sep 2010 police revolt (30S), Ley Orgánica de Comunicación Jun 2013 (media law passed in transition to second term). (d) Popularity: won Nov 2006 runoff 56.7%; approval 70s-80s peak; re- elected Apr 2009 51.9%; re-re-elected Feb 2013 57.2%; dominant political position. (e) Coherence: high — Constitution + default + oil-contract + bono expansion formed coherent Bolivarian programme under dollarization hard-money constraint; fiscal space rested on Chinese oil-loans.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

property rights
institutional.property_rights
Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.
decreased · moderate
weaker property rights
Selective default + oil-contract unilateral renegotiation + constitutional expansion of state sectors.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Bono de Desarrollo Humano doubled to USD 50/month; scale-up of beneficiaries.
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · moderate
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating
Mining code + hydrocarbons-law reform raised state control over extractive licensing.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · weak
weaker rule of law
Judicial-council reset + media-law climate constrained press freedom.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
selective_default_market_access_cost
not yet written
resource_nationalism_fdi

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

References

Notes

Splits ecuador_correa_21st_century_socialism_2007_2017 umbrella into first term; Montecristi Constitution is defining institutional act.