IESET.
Movements·brazil_figueiredo_final_military_1979_1985

Figueiredo final military — debt crisis, completed abertura

BRA·19791985·Military regime (PDS after 1979 party reform); final Sorbonne phase
Leaders: João Figueiredo (President, General 1979-1985) · Mário Henrique Simonsen (Planning briefly 1979) · Delfim Netto (Planning 1979-1985) · Ernane Galvêas (Finance 1980-1985) · Antônio Carlos Lemgruber (Banco Central Governor) · Petrônio Portella (Casa Civil)
positionschicago_monetarismdevelopmentalismpost_keynesian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Terminal military phase combining acute debt-crisis stabilisation with the transition to civilian rule. Four doctrinal phases: (1) 1979-1980 reflation attempt — Delfim Netto's return to planning ministry with heterodox reflation (wage semestral indexation, interest-rate ceilings on agricultural credit); inflation accelerated from 40% to 110% and Delfim pivoted orthodox in late 1980; (2) 1981-1982 austerity prelude — IMF pressure, sharp fiscal retrenchment, industrial recession; (3) 1982-1985 debt crisis management — Mexican default August 1982 contagion closed Brazil's external credit; Brazil entered first IMF Extended Fund Facility February 1983; January-February 1983 maxi- devaluation (30%); seven successive IMF letters of intent; external debt peaked USD 104bn (1985), debt-service-to-export ratio ~60%; (4) completed political abertura — November 1979 Party Reform dissolved ARENA/MDB and created multi-party system; November 1982 direct gubernatorial elections; Diretas Já campaign (January-April 1984) demanded direct presidential election but Dante de Oliveira amendment failed; Tancredo Neves elected by electoral college January 1985 (died before inauguration; Sarney sworn in 15 March 1985). Stated school: orthodox stabilisation with corporatist incomes-policy residue. Left-right axis: authoritarian-right on political content, centre-right on economic content post-1980 pivot. Popularity / legitimacy: no direct presidential election; November 1982 legislative elections — first under party reform — PDS retained Chamber (49%) against PMDB (43%), PDT (5%), PT (3%); 1984 Diretas Já rallies of 1.3M people in São Paulo pressed transition. Coherence line: trade heterodox reflation ambition for debt-crisis-compelled orthodoxy while completing the political negotiation of the handover to civilian rule.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · moderate
lower spending share
Post-1982 IMF-compelled public-sector retrenchment.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · weak
more protectionist
Continued import licensing; export-promotion subsidies retained.
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · moderate
looser financial regulation
Exchange controls tightened; debt-service moratorium posture 1987 Sarney flagged.
monetary expansion direction
monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
decreased · weak
contractionary (balance sheet shrink, rates above Taylor)
Belated orthodoxy 1981-82 after failed 1979-80 reflation.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · moderate
stronger rule of law
Party reform 1979; state direct elections 1982; civilian handover January 1985.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
debt_crisis_liability_dollarisation
not yet written
transition_from_authoritarian_rule

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
developmentalism
Delfim's 1979-80 reflation was developmentalist-heterodox; reversed under crisis.

References

Notes

End of military rule; hands over to Sarney / Nova República 15 March 1985.