IESET.
Movements·austria_nehammer_ovp_greens_2022_2025

Nehammer OeVP-Greens coalition 2022-2025

AUT·2022 – 2025·OeVP-Gruene (continuation of Kurz II coalition under new OeVP leadership)
Leaders: Karl Nehammer (Chancellor, OeVP) · Werner Kogler (Vice-Chancellor + Minister for Arts/Culture, Gruene) · Magnus Brunner (Finance Minister, OeVP, to 2024) · Leonore Gewessler (Climate Action Minister, Gruene)
positionseco_socialistempirical_pragmatistordoliberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Continuation of the 2019 Kurz-Kogler OeVP-Greens pairing under new OeVP leadership after Kurz's December 2021 resignation, fusing OeVP centre-right fiscal orthodoxy and migration restrictionism with the Greens' climate agenda — a 'turquoise-green' doctrine that proponents framed as proof the European centre-right could govern productively with the Greens. Operated under extreme exogenous shock: the February 2022 Russian invasion triggered an energy-price crisis for which Austria was acutely exposed given ~80% Russian gas dependence, forcing a large emergency-subsidy footprint (Stromkostenbremse, Energiekostenzuschuss) alongside the pre-planned structural reform package. Core enactments: Oekosoziale Steuerreform 2022 introducing a national CO2 price (EUR 30/t from Oct 2022, escalating) with a per-capita redistributive Klimabonus; staged corporate-tax cut from 25% to 24% (2023) then 23% (2024); abolition of kalte Progression in 2023 (automatic bracket-indexing ending the 'secret tax hike'); family package 2022 (Familienbonus raised to EUR 2,000, Mehrkindzuschlag); PV-Anlagen VAT abolition 2024 (zero-rate VAT on residential solar up to 35kWp); renewable expansion law (EAG). Collapsed after the September 2024 Nationalrat election delivered FPOe first place and no viable continuation majority. Coherence judgement: operationally competent on CO2-pricing-plus-rebate and kalte Progression — both long-advocated structural reforms finally delivered — but fiscally undisciplined under energy-shock pressure, leaving a ~4.7% of GDP deficit and EDP liability for the successor.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
decreased · moderate
lower corporate tax burden
Koerperschaftsteuer 25% -> 24% (2023) -> 23% (2024); lowest Austrian rate in Second Republic history.
↓
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · moderate
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
Kalte Progression abolition (automatic bracket indexation) removes inflation-driven upward creep of effective rates; middle-bracket cuts within Oekosoziale package.
↑
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Klimabonus per-capita rebate (EUR 250-500 depending on region), Familienbonus raised, energy-cost-brake subsidies.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
Stromkostenbremse and Energiekostenzuschuss pushed spending/GDP to ~52%; deficit reached ~4.7% of GDP in 2024 triggering EU EDP.
↑
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · strong
more stringent environmental rules
National CO2 price from 2022 (EUR 30/t, escalating), Erneuerbaren-Ausbau-Gesetz targets, PV zero-VAT.
↑
energy supply security
regulatory.energy_supply_security
Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.
increased · moderate
higher supply-security posture (diversified, strategic reserves)
Gas-storage mandates, diversification away from Gazprom long-term contracts, Italy/Germany interconnector prioritisation — from a very low supply-security base.
↓
immigration openness
regulatory.immigration_openness
Immigration policy openness — work visas, family reunification, asylum processing, border enforcement posture.
decreased · weak
more restrictive (lower caps, tighter enforcement)
Continued OeVP-line asylum-restriction posture, Schengen-veto diplomacy against Bulgaria/Romania (2022-23); offset partly by Rot-Weiss-Rot-Karte skilled-migration liberalisation 2022.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
PV/wind subsidies under EAG; hydrogen strategy seed funding; heat-pump replacement bonus.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
carbon_price_plus_rebate_distributional_effect
not yet written
bracket_creep_abolition_fiscal_drift_effect
not yet written
energy_shock_subsidy_deficit_tradeoff

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
eco_socialist
CO2-price-plus-rebate architecture is textbook ecological-economics design.
partial
empirical_pragmatist
Credits CO2 price and kalte Progression reform; critical of subsidy drift and EDP outcome.
partial
ordoliberal
Corporate rate cut and bracket indexation applauded; deficit trajectory criticised.

References

Notes

Nationalrat seat distribution at formation (Dec 2021): OeVP 71 (37.5% at 2019 election), Gruene 26 (13.9%) — total 97/183 = 53.0%. Nehammer approval peaked ~45% in mid-2022 after energy-crisis response; fell to ~25-30% by 2024 amid inflation backlash. Forschungsgruppe / Market polls through 2023-24 showed FPOe steadily ahead at 28-32%. Final Sep 2024 election: FPOe 28.8% (first place, +12.7pp), OeVP 26.3% (-11.2pp, worst OeVP result in Second Republic), SPOe 21.1%, Greens 8.2% (-5.7pp). Key leadership transition: Kurz resigned 9 Dec 2021 amid Inseraten-Affaere corruption probe; Schallenberg caretaker chancellor Oct-Dec 2021; Nehammer took office 6 Dec 2021. The coalition survived the Ibiza-era successor instability that had toppled Kurz I.