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Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_france_rsa_prime_dactivite_employment_effect

France's RSA (Revenu de Solidarité Active 2009, replacing RMI + API) and Prime d'Activité (2016, replacing RSA-activité + PPE) lowered the participation tax rate on low-wage work and raised employment among low-education beneficiaries by 2 to 4 percentage points relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of EU peers without comparable reforms (BEL, ITA, ESP, PRT) over five-year post-reform windows.

PARTIALengine/runs/welfare_transfer_france_rsa_prime_dactivite_employment_effect

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-2.622, |gap|/pre_sd=2, p_perm=0.714; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether rsa pa indicator is actually linked to better or worse employment rate low education from 2000 to 2022.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-2.622, |gap|/pre_sd=2, p_perm=0.714; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2000 to 2022, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Rsa pa indicator
What we checked
  • Employment rate low education
  • Working poor rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_france_rsa_prime_dactivite_employment_effect
1007550250200020112022FRABELITAESPPRTDEUNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment_rate_low_education across 7 sampled countries over 2000–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_france_rsa_prime_dactivite_employment_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_france_rsa_prime_dactivite_employment_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T12:52:22Z

France's RSA (Revenu de Solidarité Active 2009, replacing RMI + API) and Prime d'Activité (2016, replacing RSA-activité + PPE) lowered the participation tax rate on low-wage work and raised employment among low-education beneficiaries by 2 to 4 percentage points relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of EU peers without comparable reforms (BEL, ITA, ESP, PRT) over five-year post-reform windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the synthetic-control gap on low-education employment rate at five-year horizon is below +2pp, OR if placebo permutation p-value exceeds 0.10, OR if working-poor rate gap is positive (deteriorates) at five-year horizon.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_5yr_gap_employment_low_education
threshold: gap >= +2pp at 5yr horizon AND placebo_p < 0.10 AND working_poor_gap <= 0

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2000 – 2022
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic control on FRA with BEL, ITA, ESP, PRT, DEU, NLD donor pool. Pre-treatment fit 2000-2008. Two treatment events (RSA 2009 and PA 2016) tested as separate synthetic-control runs and as a combined event window 2009-2022.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment_rate_low_education
outcome
eurostat:lfsa_ergaedntier 1
level_pct
working_poor_rate
outcome
eurostat:ilc_iw01tier 1
level_pct
rsa_pa_indicator
treatment
eurostat:lfsa_ergaedntier 1
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
eurostat:une_rt_atier 1
level
minimum_wage_relative_median
control
oecd:DSD_EARNINGStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_france_rsa_prime_dactivite_employment_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-2.622, |gap|/pre_sd=2, p_perm=0.714; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: France's RSA (Revenu de Solidarité Active 2009, replacing RMI + API) and Prime d'Activité (2016, replacing RSA-activité + PPE) lowered the participation tax rate on low-wage work and raised employment among low-education beneficiaries by 2 to 4 percentage points relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of EU peers without comparable reforms (BEL, ITA, ESP, PRT) over five-year post-reform windows.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the synthetic-control gap on low-education employment rate at five-year horizon is below +2pp, OR if placebo permutation p-value exceeds 0.10, OR if working-poor rate gap is positive (deteriorates) at five-year horizon.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: FRA
  • event_year: 2009
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'ESP': 0.4031, 'NLD': 0.2728, 'PRT': 0.2195, 'BEL': 0.1046, 'ITA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 4.688801484886241
  • pre_period_sd: 1.2798620635001343
  • mean_post_gap: -2.6220720359423986
  • end_period_gap: -2.2687344421211435
  • post_period_years: [2009, 2022]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.7142857142857143
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:lfsa_ergaedn → employment_rate_low_education (outcome, n=1032)
  • eurostat:ilc_iw01 → working_poor_rate (outcome, n=828)
  • eurostat:lfsa_ergaedn → rsa_pa_indicator (treatment, n=1032)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • eurostat:une_rt_a → unemployment_rate (controls, n=634)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T12:52:22+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.