Pre-registration
The UK Universal Credit rollout (2013-2017, replacing six legacy means-tested benefits with a single taper) raised employment-rate among legacy-benefit claimants by 3 to 5 percentage points within 24 months of area rollout, identified off geographic-staggered Pathfinder/full-service rollout timing 2013-2018, controlling for area unemployment and the post-Brexit-vote labour-market shock.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Refuted if employment-rate ATT among legacy claimants is below +3pp at 24-month post-rollout horizon, OR if the 95% CI excludes +3pp, OR if the post-rollout coefficient is non-monotonic and dominated by the COVID-uplift period.
formal test & threshold
test: event_study_att_24mo_employment_rate_legacy_claimants threshold: ATT >= +3pp at 24mo horizon AND lower 95% CI bound > 0
Method
- Template
event_study- Fixed effects
local_authority, year_quarter- Clustering
local_authority- Sample
- 1 countries · 2010 – 2022
- Evidence type
- causal
Event study around LAD-level UC full-service go-live 2013-2018. Pre-trend window 24 months, post-window 36 months. Cohort heterogeneity reported by Pathfinder/full-service stage.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
employment_rate_working_age outcome | oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2 | level_pct |
benefit_caseload_legacy_to_uc_share outcome | eurostat:lfsa_argantier 1 | ratio |
uc_full_service_rollout treatment | oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2 | indicator |
lad_unemployment_rate control | eurostat:lfst_r_lfu3rttier 1 | level |
real_wage_index control | oecd:DSD_LFS_BStier 2 | log |
gdp_per_capita_real control | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2 | log |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card - welfare_reform_uk_universal_credit_employment_effect
Verdict: PARTIAL - national 24-month employment gap is positive but below +3pp (2.55pp)
National Employment Benchmark
- 2015 gap vs 2010-2012 pretrend: 2.55 pp.
- 2017 gap vs pretrend: 3.44 pp.
- Mean 2013-2019 gap: 2.64 pp.
This national benchmark is directional only; the registered claimant-by-local-authority design remains unwired.
Generated by engine/runs/welfare_reform_uk_universal_credit_employment_effect/replication.py at 2026-05-17T20:57:53+00:00
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
UK Pathfinder rollout 2013, full-service expansion 2015-2018, managed migration 2019-2024.