IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023

Large electricity-access expansion from 1990 to 2023 should generally coincide with positive average real GDP-per-capita growth rather than being bought at the price of stagnation.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 54 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Electricity access gain
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023AFGBENBGDBLZBOLBTNBWA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 54 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 3fc4c7e · 2026-05-02T17:38:10Z

Large electricity-access expansion from 1990 to 2023 should generally coincide with positive average real GDP-per-capita growth rather than being bought at the price of stagnation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if n>=40, at least 60% of selected countries average >=1% real GDP-per-capita growth, and the median average is >=1%. REFUTED if fewer than 45% pass or the median is <0%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023
threshold: n >= 40 AND pass_rate >= 0.60 AND median_avg_real_gdp_pc_growth >= 1

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
54 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom endpoint/mean panel replication using local WDI/OWID vintages and fixed country-selection thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
annual mean
electricity_access_gain
treatment
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZStier 2
country selected if endpoint gain >= 30pp

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023

Verdict: supported - 37 of 54 countries passed (68.5%); median avg_real_gdp_pc_growth = 1.80

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if n>=40, at least 60% of selected countries average >=1% real GDP-per-capita growth, and the median average is >=1%. REFUTED if fewer than 45% pass or the median is <0%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 40 AND pass_rate >= 0.60 AND median_avg_real_gdp_pc_growth >= 1

Metrics

  • n_countries: 54
  • countries_passing: 37
  • pass_rate: 0.6851851851851852
  • median_avg_real_gdp_pc_growth: 1.7987808067117015

Country Panel

| country_iso3 | country_name | electricity_access_gain_pp | avg_real_gdp_pc_growth | pass | |---|---|---|---|---| | AFG | Afghanistan | 80.90 | 1.30 | yes | | BEN | Benin | 42.50 | 1.73 | yes | | BGD | Bangladesh | 85.21 | 4.26 | yes | | BLZ | Belize | 32.60 | 1.60 | yes | | BOL | Bolivia | 39.77 | 1.97 | yes | | BTN | Bhutan | 68.80 | 4.67 | yes | | BWA | Botswana | 65.90 | 1.99 | yes | | CIV | Cote d'Ivoire | 35.90 | 0.58 | no | | CMR | Cameroon | 43.00 | 0.01 | no | | COM | Comoros | 60.90 | 0.46 | no | | CPV | Cabo Verde | 40.00 | 5.02 | yes | | ETH | Ethiopia | 42.70 | 3.56 | yes | | FJI | Fiji | 32.40 | 1.83 | yes | | FSM | Micronesia, Fed. Sts. | 40.90 | 0.70 | no | | GHA | Ghana | 58.90 | 2.71 | yes | | GIN | Guinea | 34.70 | 1.88 | yes | | GMB | Gambia, The | 49.20 | 0.36 | no | | GNB | Guinea-Bissau | 39.20 | 1.22 | yes | | GTM | Guatemala | 39.20 | 1.47 | yes | | HND | Honduras | 40.82 | 5.95 | yes | | IDN | Indonesia | 50.50 | 3.35 | yes | | IND | India | 48.60 | 4.47 | yes | | KEN | Kenya | 65.30 | 0.96 | no | | KHM | Cambodia | 76.33 | 3.12 | yes | | KIR | Kiribati | 40.30 | 0.91 | no | | LAO | Lao PDR | 65.50 | 4.42 | yes | | LSO | Lesotho | 53.00 | 1.95 | yes | | MAR | Morocco | 50.80 | 2.21 | yes | | MDG | Madagascar | 30.20 | -0.46 | no | | MHL | Marshall Islands | 31.48 | 1.77 | yes | | MLI | Mali | 48.30 | 1.08 | yes | | MMR | Myanmar | 34.90 | 6.05 | yes | | MNG | Mongolia | 32.70 | 2.75 | yes | | MRT | Mauritania | 31.20 | 0.34 | no | | NAM | Namibia | 30.30 | 0.93 | no | | NGA | Nigeria | 33.90 | 1.42 | yes | | NPL | Nepal | 76.10 | 3.04 | yes | | PHL | Philippines | 32.60 | 2.41 | yes | | RWA | Rwanda | 61.60 | 3.72 | yes | | SDN | Sudan | 33.20 | -0.30 | no | | SEN | Senegal | 48.20 | 1.06 | yes | | SLB | Solomon Islands | 65.60 | 0.08 | no | | SOM | Somalia, Fed. Rep. | 48.20 | 1.96 | yes | | SWZ | Eswatini | 66.00 | 2.36 | yes | | TGO | Togo | 43.90 | 0.74 | no | | TLS | Timor-Leste | 82.20 | 3.32 | yes | | TZA | Tanzania | 41.50 | 2.23 | yes | | UGA | Uganda | 45.90 | 2.95 | yes | | VCT | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 33.20 | 2.74 | yes | | VUT | Vanuatu | 43.60 | 0.41 | no | | YEM | Yemen, Rep. | 39.50 | -1.36 | no | | ZAF | South Africa | 30.10 | 0.64 | no | | ZMB | Zambia | 37.20 | 1.20 | yes | | ZWE | Zimbabwe | 33.80 | 0.01 | no |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive structural-screen verdict using local WDI/OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern, not a causal effect of a single policy lever.

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/wdi_electrification_growth_nonpenalty_1990_2023.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.