IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·us_decoupling_consumption_based_accounting

US GDP growth 1980-2020 did not absolutely decouple from territorial CO2 emissions once offshored manufacturing emissions are attributed; 'decoupling' claim dissolves under consumption-based accounting.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/us_decoupling_consumption_based_accounting

SUPPORTED — shape=pre_post, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=0.864

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. shape=pre_post, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=0.864

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Real income
  • Territorial co2
  • Consumption based co2
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/us_decoupling_consumption_based_accounting
Loading chart…

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-28T12:41:49Z

US GDP growth 1980-2020 did not absolutely decouple from territorial CO2 emissions once offshored manufacturing emissions are attributed; 'decoupling' claim dissolves under consumption-based accounting.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if cumulative US real GDP growth 1980-2020 (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD ratio 2020/1980 - 1) exceeds +50% AND the absolute change in US consumption-based CO2 (level 2020 vs level 1980) is a decline of less than 5% (i.e. consumption-based emissions are roughly flat or higher while GDP more than 1.5x — the 'decoupling claim dissolves' regime). REFUTED if consumption-based CO2 declined by at least 25% over 1980-2020 (sustained absolute decoupling visible even on the offshoring-corrected series). PARTIAL otherwise. INFORMATIVE (not gating): cumulative change in territorial CO2 per capita and the implied territorial-vs-consumption gap, reported in diagnostics. METHOD_VALID: requires both world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD and a US 1980-2020 consumption-based CO2 series (owid:consumption_co2 or equivalent GCP/Eora MRIO vintage) on disk. If the consumption-based series is missing, the run emits 'inconclusive (data gap on owid:consumption_co2)' and reports the territorial-only descriptive numbers as informative.

formal test & threshold
test:      us_gdp_vs_consumption_based_co2_1980_2020
threshold: PRIMARY: gdp_ratio_2020_1980 > 1.50 AND consumption_co2_change_pct > -0.05  -> SUPPORTED. consumption_co2_change_pct <= -0.25  -> REFUTED.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
descriptive

Single-country US 1980-2020 time-series comparison of GDP growth against territorial CO2 emissions and against consumption-based (offshoring-corrected) emissions. Tests whether the decoupling claim persists once offshored manufacturing emissions are attributed to the consuming economy.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
—
territorial_co2
outcome
owid:co2_per_capitatier 2
—
consumption_based_co2
outcome
owid:consumption_co2tier 2
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — us_decoupling_consumption_based_accounting

Verdict: SUPPORTED — shape=pre_post, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=0.864

Pre-registration

  • Claim: US GDP growth 1980-2020 did not absolutely decouple from territorial CO2 emissions once offshored manufacturing emissions are attributed; 'decoupling' claim dissolves under consumption-based accounting.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if cumulative US real GDP growth 1980-2020 (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD ratio 2020/1980 - 1) exceeds +50% AND the absolute change in US consumption-based CO2 (level 2020 vs level 1980) is a decline of less than 5% (i.e. consumption-based emissions are roughly flat or higher while GDP more than 1.5x — the 'decoupling claim dissolves' regime). REFUTED if consumption-based CO2 declined by at least 25% over 1980-2020 (sustained absolute decoupling visible even on the offshoring-corrected series). PARTIAL otherwise. INFORMATIVE (not gating): cumulative change in territorial CO2 per capita and the implied territorial-vs-consumption gap, reported in diagnostics. METHOD_VALID: requires both world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD and a US 1980-2020 consumption-based CO2 series (owid:consumption_co2 or equivalent GCP/Eora MRIO vintage) on disk. If the consumption-based series is missing, the run emits 'inconclusive (data gap on owid:consumption_co2)' and reports the territorial-only descriptive numbers as informative.
  • Falsification test: us_gdp_vs_consumption_based_co2_1980_2020

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: USA
  • cut_year: 2000
  • pre_mean: 7364594588457.541
  • post_mean: 17471741860109.488
  • delta: 10107147271651.947
  • log_delta: 0.8639008222585929
  • n_pre: 40
  • n_post: 25

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → real_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)

Variables missing data

  • owid:co2_per_capita (outcome, name=territorial_co2)
  • owid:consumption_co2 (outcome, name=consumption_based_co2)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-28T12:41:49+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from an eco-socialist prediction about offshoring-corrected emissions. Promoted v1 on 2026-04-27. The consumption-based CO2 series (Global Carbon Project / Eora MRIO) is NOT yet on disk — fetcher needs to be built before a dispositive verdict is possible. Run currently emits inconclusive (data gap) with territorial-only descriptive numbers as informative.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.