IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·uk_erm_exit_1992_output_unemployment_inflation

The UK's September 1992 ERM exit was followed by a rapid real-output rebound and disinflation, while unemployment lagged the recovery rather than improving immediately.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/uk_erm_exit_1992_output_unemployment_inflation

SUPPORTED

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. SUPPORTED

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1992 to 1993, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Erm exit
What we checked
  • Real income cvm
  • Unemployment rate
  • Cpih inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/uk_erm_exit_1992_output_unemployment_inflation
1007550250199219931993GBR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_cvm across 1 sampled countries over 1992–1993.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for uk_erm_exit_1992_output_unemployment_inflation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/uk_erm_exit_1992_output_unemployment_inflation/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 3fc4c7e · 2026-05-02T17:38:10Z

The UK's September 1992 ERM exit was followed by a rapid real-output rebound and disinflation, while unemployment lagged the recovery rather than improving immediately.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 2 of 3 predeclared metrics pass: real GDP rebounds by more than 2 percent by 1993Q4, unemployment rises by more than 0.5pp by 1993Q1, and CPIH inflation falls by more than 1pp by 1993Q4. REFUTED if 1 or fewer pass.

formal test & threshold
test:      uk_erm_exit_1992_three_metric_event_window
threshold: SUPPORTED if >= 2 metrics pass; REFUTED if <= 1 pass.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1992 – 1993
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Compact national event-window replication from cached ONS/INE/BCRA vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_cvm
outcome
ons:ABMItier 1
quarterly level
unemployment_rate
outcome
ons:MGSXtier 1
quarterly percent
cpih_inflation
outcome
ons:L55Otier 1
quarterly percent yoy
erm_exit
treatment
constructed:sterling leaves ERM on 1992-09-16tier 5
event indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - uk_erm_exit_1992_output_unemployment_inflation

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 3/3 metrics passed (support >= 2; refute <= 1).

Claim

The UK's September 1992 ERM exit was followed by a rapid real-output rebound and disinflation, while unemployment lagged the recovery rather than improving immediately.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | Threshold | Pass | Details | |---|---:|---|:---:|---| | real_gdp_rebound_four_quarters | 3.366 | >2% increase | yes | 374537 to 387143 | | unemployment_lagged_peak | 0.700 | >0.5pp rise by 1993Q1 | yes | 9.9% to 10.6% | | inflation_deceleration | 1.800 | >1pp fall by 1993Q4 | yes | 4.0% to 2.2% |

Interpretation

This is a compact predeclared event-window verdict using local cached national-statistics vintages. It is strong for timing and magnitude, but not a full causal structural decomposition.

Provenance

See manifest.yaml for exact vintage files and SHA-256 hashes. Re-run with replication.py.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by scripts/generate_national_event_wave.py from local cached vintages; no network fetch required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.