IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·uk_energy_cpi_real_earnings_squeeze_2022

The 2022 UK energy-price shock produced high CPIH inflation and a material CPI-deflated weekly-earnings squeeze.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/uk_energy_cpi_real_earnings_squeeze_2022

SUPPORTED

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether energy price shock is actually linked to better or worse cpih inflation from 2021 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. SUPPORTED

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2021 to 2023, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Energy price shock
What we checked
  • Cpih inflation
  • Cpi index
  • Weekly earnings
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/uk_energy_cpi_real_earnings_squeeze_2022
1007550250202120222023GBR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpih_inflation across 1 sampled countries over 2021–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for uk_energy_cpi_real_earnings_squeeze_2022. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/uk_energy_cpi_real_earnings_squeeze_2022/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 3fc4c7e · 2026-05-02T17:38:10Z

The 2022 UK energy-price shock produced high CPIH inflation and a material CPI-deflated weekly-earnings squeeze.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 2 of 3 metrics pass: CPIH inflation exceeds 6 percent in 2022, remains above 5 percent in 2023, and CPI-deflated weekly earnings fall by more than 2 percent from 2021Q4 to 2022Q4. REFUTED if 1 or fewer pass.

formal test & threshold
test:      uk_energy_2022_cpi_real_earnings_three_metric_window
threshold: SUPPORTED if >= 2 metrics pass; REFUTED if <= 1 pass.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2021 – 2023
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Compact national event-window replication from cached ONS/INE/BCRA vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpih_inflation
outcome
ons:L55Otier 1
annual percent yoy
cpi_index
outcome
ons:D7BTtier 1
quarterly index
weekly_earnings
outcome
ons:KAB9tier 1
quarterly level deflated by CPI
energy_price_shock
treatment
constructed:2022 wholesale energy/CPI shock windowtier 5
event indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - uk_energy_cpi_real_earnings_squeeze_2022

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 3/3 metrics passed (support >= 2; refute <= 1).

Claim

The 2022 UK energy-price shock produced high CPIH inflation and a material CPI-deflated weekly-earnings squeeze.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | Threshold | Pass | Details | |---|---:|---|:---:|---| | inflation_spike_2022 | 7.900 | 2022 CPIH inflation >6% | yes | 7.9% | | inflation_persistence_2023 | 6.800 | 2023 CPIH inflation >5% | yes | 6.8% | | real_weekly_earnings_squeeze | -4.093 | <-2% real weekly earnings growth | yes | KAB9/CPI 5.201 to 4.988 |

Interpretation

This is a compact predeclared event-window verdict using local cached national-statistics vintages. It is strong for timing and magnitude, but not a full causal structural decomposition.

Provenance

See manifest.yaml for exact vintage files and SHA-256 hashes. Re-run with replication.py.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by scripts/generate_national_event_wave.py from local cached vintages; no network fetch required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.