IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_south_africa_sadc_trade

South Africa's SADC trade-protocol implementation (effective 2000, asymmetric tariff phase-down completed 2008 for the SADC developing-country members and 2012 for South Africa) raised bilateral intra-SADC trade for ZAF but did not produce a measurable acceleration in aggregate ZAF trade-openness over 2000-2019.

The descriptive claim is that SADC produced bilateral composition shifts in regional trade share without moving the aggregate trade-share-of-GDP needle.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_south_africa_sadc_trade

SUPPORTED — ZAF openness changed +13.3pp, inside the registered [-5,+20]pp band

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. ZAF openness changed +13.3pp, inside the registered [-5,+20]pp band

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 1990 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

2 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_south_africa_sadc_trade
1007550250199020052019ZAFBWANAMSWZLSOMOZZMB
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 10 sampled countries over 1990–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_south_africa_sadc_trade. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_south_africa_sadc_trade/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:42:49Z

South Africa's SADC trade-protocol implementation (effective 2000, asymmetric tariff phase-down completed 2008 for the SADC developing-country members and 2012 for South Africa) raised bilateral intra-SADC trade for ZAF but did not produce a measurable acceleration in aggregate ZAF trade-openness over 2000-2019. The descriptive claim is that SADC produced bilateral composition shifts in regional trade share without moving the aggregate trade-share-of-GDP needle.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED (modest effect) if ZAF trade-openness change 1995- 1999 to 2010-2019 is in the [+5, +20] pp range. SUPPORTED (null) if change is within +/- 5 pp. REFUTED if change exceeds +20 pp (which would suggest something beyond SADC, likely commodity prices, drove the change).

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_zaf_sadc_trade_openness_break
threshold: PRIMARY: openness_change(ZAF, 1995-99 -> 2010-19) in [-5, +20] pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
10 countries · 1990 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive structural-break test. Reports ZAF trade-openness 1995-1999 mean vs 2010-2019 mean. Tests whether SADC implementation produced an aggregate trade-share break.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_south_africa_sadc_trade

Verdict: SUPPORTED — ZAF openness changed +13.3pp, inside the registered [-5,+20]pp band

Pre-registration

  • Claim: South Africa's SADC trade-protocol implementation (effective 2000, asymmetric tariff phase-down completed 2008 for the SADC developing-country members and 2012 for South Africa) raised bilateral intra-SADC trade for ZAF but did not produce a measurable acceleration in aggregate ZAF trade-openness over 2000-2019. The descriptive claim is that SADC produced bilateral composition shifts in regional trade share without moving the aggregate trade-share-of-GDP needle.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED (modest effect) if ZAF trade-openness change 1995- 1999 to 2010-2019 is in the [+5, +20] pp range. SUPPORTED (null) if change is within +/- 5 pp. REFUTED if change exceeds +20 pp (which would suggest something beyond SADC, likely commodity prices, drove the change).
  • Falsification test: descriptive_zaf_sadc_trade_openness_break

Comparison

  • shape: registered_zaf_sadc_window_gate
  • source: world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • publisher: world_bank_wdi
  • country: ZAF
  • primary_delta: {'country': 'ZAF', 'pre': {'country': 'ZAF', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 42.0545322590355, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'ZAF', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 55.35070634916845, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 13.29617409013295}
  • peer_deltas: [{'country': 'BWA', 'pre': {'country': 'BWA', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 98.98505651884936, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'BWA', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 101.65939497043227, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 2.674338451582912}, {'country': 'NAM', 'pre': {'country': 'NAM', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 93.23537352266422, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'NAM', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 94.83199768293505, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 1.596624160270835}, {'country': 'MOZ', 'pre': {'country': 'MOZ', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 48.52733395099558, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'MOZ', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 103.50202165853003, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 54.97468770753444}, {'country': 'ZMB', 'pre': {'country': 'ZMB', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 61.467792143267715, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'ZMB', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 73.8916684693747, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 12.423876326106978}, {'country': 'ZWE', 'pre': {'country': 'ZWE', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 78.57260427049002, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'ZWE', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 62.373375085923364, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': -16.199229184566654}, {'country': 'MUS', 'pre': {'country': 'MUS', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 125.962652459054, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'MUS', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 125.40485183033518, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': -0.5578006287188231}, {'country': 'TZA', 'pre': {'country': 'TZA', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 32.18258135592412, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'TZA', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 42.71151049841312, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 10.528929142488998}]
  • peer_mean_delta_pp: 9.34877513924267
  • support_gate_delta_between_minus5_and_20pp: True
  • refute_gate_delta_gt_20pp: False

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:42:49+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.