IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_singapore_china_2009_bilateral_fta

The Singapore-China FTA, effective 2009-01-01, produced negligible measurable trade-creation effects on Singapore aggregate trade ratios because Singapore's trade was already extremely liberalised under unilateral free-port policy and pre-existing ASEAN-China integration.

The null-prediction is that Singapore's trade- openness trajectory should not show a structural break at 2009.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_singapore_china_2009_bilateral_fta

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.988, ratio=2.69; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.988, ratio=2.69; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1995 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Sg chn fta indicator
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_singapore_china_2009_bilateral_fta
1007550250199520072019SGPHKGMYSTHAKORJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 6 sampled countries over 1995–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_singapore_china_2009_bilateral_fta. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_singapore_china_2009_bilateral_fta/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:40Z

The Singapore-China FTA, effective 2009-01-01, produced negligible measurable trade-creation effects on Singapore aggregate trade ratios because Singapore's trade was already extremely liberalised under unilateral free-port policy and pre-existing ASEAN-China integration. The null-prediction is that Singapore's trade- openness trajectory should not show a structural break at 2009.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED (null) if the SGP-vs-HKG difference in trade-openness change from 2004-2008 to 2009-2013 is within +/- 5 pp. REFUTED (rejecting the null) if SGP shows a >5 pp positive gap relative to HKG.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_sgp_vs_hkg_2009_fta_break
threshold: PRIMARY: |delta_openness(SGP) - delta_openness(HKG)| <= 5 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
6 countries · 1995 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive structural-break test. Pre/post-2009 mean trade- openness comparison for Singapore vs Hong Kong (the natural comparator: similar free-port, similar pre-existing liberalisation, no equivalent bilateral with China).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
sg_chn_fta_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for SGP from 2009-01-01tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_singapore_china_2009_bilateral_fta

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.988, ratio=2.69; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Singapore-China FTA, effective 2009-01-01, produced negligible measurable trade-creation effects on Singapore aggregate trade ratios because Singapore's trade was already extremely liberalised under unilateral free-port policy and pre-existing ASEAN-China integration. The null-prediction is that Singapore's trade- openness trajectory should not show a structural break at 2009.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED (null) if the SGP-vs-HKG difference in trade-openness change from 2004-2008 to 2009-2013 is within +/- 5 pp. REFUTED (rejecting the null) if SGP shows a >5 pp positive gap relative to HKG.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_sgp_vs_hkg_2009_fta_break

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: SGP
  • treatment_value: 327.47097861379115
  • donor_pool_median: 121.92971026280989
  • ratio: 2.685735723540663
  • log_diff: 0.9879547029181293
  • n_donor_countries: 5
  • end_year_window: [2014, 2019]

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10779)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10969)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for SGP from 2009-01-01 (treatment, name=sg_chn_fta_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T08:07:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.