IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_morocco_eu_us_ftas

Morocco's FTA cascade (EU Association Agreement 2000, Agadir Agreement 2007, US FTA 2006, Turkey 2006) raised Moroccan trade- openness and manufacturing-export share over the 2000-2019 window relative to North African comparators.

The expected effect is modest but detectable in within-country and comparator descriptive comparisons.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_morocco_eu_us_ftas

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.121, ratio=1.13; threshold not extracted

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.121, ratio=1.13; threshold not extracted

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1990 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Log manufacturing value added
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_morocco_eu_us_ftas
1007550250199020052019MARTUNEGYDZAJOR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 5 sampled countries over 1990–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_morocco_eu_us_ftas. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_morocco_eu_us_ftas/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:40Z

Morocco's FTA cascade (EU Association Agreement 2000, Agadir Agreement 2007, US FTA 2006, Turkey 2006) raised Moroccan trade- openness and manufacturing-export share over the 2000-2019 window relative to North African comparators. The expected effect is modest but detectable in within-country and comparator descriptive comparisons.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Morocco trade-openness change 1995-1999 mean to 2015-2019 mean exceeds comparator-mean change by >=5 pp. PARTIAL if smaller. REFUTED if Morocco underperforms.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_morocco_fta_cascade_trade_openness
threshold: PRIMARY: (delta_openness(MAR) - delta_openness(MENA_comparator_mean)) >= +5 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
5 countries · 1990 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison. Morocco trade-openness and manufacturing value-added trajectories vs MENA comparators (TUN, EGY, JOR).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_morocco_eu_us_ftas

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.121, ratio=1.13; threshold not extracted

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Morocco's FTA cascade (EU Association Agreement 2000, Agadir Agreement 2007, US FTA 2006, Turkey 2006) raised Moroccan trade- openness and manufacturing-export share over the 2000-2019 window relative to North African comparators. The expected effect is modest but detectable in within-country and comparator descriptive comparisons.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Morocco trade-openness change 1995-1999 mean to 2015-2019 mean exceeds comparator-mean change by >=5 pp. PARTIAL if smaller. REFUTED if Morocco underperforms.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_morocco_fta_cascade_trade_openness

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: MAR
  • treatment_value: 78.93726583053324
  • donor_pool_median: 69.9332991408402
  • ratio: 1.1287507782459933
  • log_diff: 0.1211115152247837
  • n_donor_countries: 4
  • end_year_window: [2014, 2019]

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10779)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD → log_manufacturing_value_added (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8668)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T08:07:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.