IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_mercosur_1991_intra_bloc_trade

Mercosur (Treaty of Asunción 1991, customs union effective 1995) raised intra-bloc trade-openness for ARG, BRA, PRY, URY through the 1990s but produced minimal additional trade-creation effects after Argentina's 2001 crisis and the gradual erosion of the common external tariff.

The descriptive claim is that the bloc's trade effect peaked in the late 1990s and has since stagnated relative to non-Mercosur Latin American economies.

REFUTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_mercosur_1991_intra_bloc_trade

REFUTED — shape=panel_summary, sign - OPPOSITE claim +; |Δ_log|=0.577, ratio=0.562

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. shape=panel_summary, sign - OPPOSITE claim +; |Δ_log|=0.577, ratio=0.562

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 1985 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Mercosur indicator
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_mercosur_1991_intra_bloc_trade
1007550250198520022019ARGBRAPRYURYCHLCOLPER
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 9 sampled countries over 1985–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_mercosur_1991_intra_bloc_trade. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_mercosur_1991_intra_bloc_trade/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:40Z

Mercosur (Treaty of Asunción 1991, customs union effective 1995) raised intra-bloc trade-openness for ARG, BRA, PRY, URY through the 1990s but produced minimal additional trade-creation effects after Argentina's 2001 crisis and the gradual erosion of the common external tariff. The descriptive claim is that the bloc's trade effect peaked in the late 1990s and has since stagnated relative to non-Mercosur Latin American economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if (a) Mercosur trade-openness rose by >=10 pp from 1990 to 1998 relative to non-Mercosur Latin American comparators, AND (b) the 1998-2019 change is <= +5 pp relative to comparators (post-peak stagnation). REFUTED if 1998-2019 change exceeds comparators by more than 10 pp (which would indicate continued trade-creation, contrary to the descriptive claim).

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_mercosur_pre_post_1998_peak
threshold: PRIMARY: openness_change(1990->1998) > +10 pp vs comparators AND openness_change(1998->2019) <= +5 pp vs comparators.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
9 countries · 1985 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison of trade-openness trajectories: Mercosur members vs Latin American non-members. Reports trade-openness levels at 1990, 1998 (pre-Argentina crisis peak), 2008, 2019. The substantive question is whether the post-2001 stagnation pattern holds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
mercosur_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for ARG, BRA, PRY, URY from 1995 (customs union effective)tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
imf:REERtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_mercosur_1991_intra_bloc_trade

Verdict: REFUTED — shape=panel_summary, sign - OPPOSITE claim +; |Δ_log|=0.577, ratio=0.562

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Mercosur (Treaty of Asunción 1991, customs union effective 1995) raised intra-bloc trade-openness for ARG, BRA, PRY, URY through the 1990s but produced minimal additional trade-creation effects after Argentina's 2001 crisis and the gradual erosion of the common external tariff. The descriptive claim is that the bloc's trade effect peaked in the late 1990s and has since stagnated relative to non-Mercosur Latin American economies.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if (a) Mercosur trade-openness rose by >=10 pp from 1990 to 1998 relative to non-Mercosur Latin American comparators, AND (b) the 1998-2019 change is <= +5 pp relative to comparators (post-peak stagnation). REFUTED if 1998-2019 change exceeds comparators by more than 10 pp (which would indicate continued trade-creation, contrary to the descriptive claim).
  • Falsification test: descriptive_mercosur_pre_post_1998_peak

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: ARG
  • treatment_value: 28.648994495882096
  • donor_pool_median: 51.003876654043346
  • ratio: 0.5617022935375431
  • log_diff: -0.5767832962447814
  • n_donor_countries: 8
  • end_year_window: [2014, 2019]

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10779)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10969)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for ARG, BRA, PRY, URY from 1995 (customs union effective) (treatment, name=mercosur_indicator)
  • imf:REER (controls, name=real_effective_exchange_rate)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T08:07:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.