IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_india_modi_tariff_reversals_2014_2024

India under the Modi government (2014-) has reversed elements of the 1991-2007 tariff-liberalisation trajectory: weighted applied tariffs rose from ~13% in 2014 to ~18% by 2022 (according to WTO and WDI tariff measures), with Production-Linked Incentive schemes adding non-tariff protection.

The claim is that India's trade-openness ratio has stagnated or fallen relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable emerging economies over 2014-2023.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_india_modi_tariff_reversals_2014_2024

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0786, ratio=1.08; threshold 13.0%, observed 7.9%

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0786, ratio=1.08; threshold 13.0%, observed 7.9%

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 2005 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise imports pct income
  • Weighted applied tariff
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_india_modi_tariff_reversals_2014_2024
1007550250200520142023INDIDNBRAZAFMEXTURVNM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 10 sampled countries over 2005–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_india_modi_tariff_reversals_2014_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_india_modi_tariff_reversals_2014_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:39Z

India under the Modi government (2014-) has reversed elements of the 1991-2007 tariff-liberalisation trajectory: weighted applied tariffs rose from ~13% in 2014 to ~18% by 2022 (according to WTO and WDI tariff measures), with Production-Linked Incentive schemes adding non-tariff protection. The claim is that India's trade-openness ratio has stagnated or fallen relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable emerging economies over 2014-2023.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if (a) WDI weighted applied tariff for India rises by >=3 pp from 2014 to 2022, AND (b) trade-openness change 2014-2019 (pre-COVID) underperforms the comparator-mean change. PARTIAL if (a) holds but (b) does not. REFUTED if (a) does not hold (i.e. tariffs did not rise).

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_india_2014_2023_tariff_and_openness
threshold: PRIMARY: tariff_change(2014->2022) >= +3 pp AND openness_change(2014->2019, IND) < openness_change(2014->2019, comparator_mean).

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
10 countries · 2005 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison. India's trade-openness 2014-2023 vs matched emerging-market comparators. Reports the weighted-tariff trajectory as a direct treatment-intensity measure.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_imports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.IMP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
weighted_applied_tariff
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_india_modi_tariff_reversals_2014_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0786, ratio=1.08; threshold 13.0%, observed 7.9%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India under the Modi government (2014-) has reversed elements of the 1991-2007 tariff-liberalisation trajectory: weighted applied tariffs rose from ~13% in 2014 to ~18% by 2022 (according to WTO and WDI tariff measures), with Production-Linked Incentive schemes adding non-tariff protection. The claim is that India's trade-openness ratio has stagnated or fallen relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable emerging economies over 2014-2023.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if (a) WDI weighted applied tariff for India rises by >=3 pp from 2014 to 2022, AND (b) trade-openness change 2014-2019 (pre-COVID) underperforms the comparator-mean change. PARTIAL if (a) holds but (b) does not. REFUTED if (a) does not hold (i.e. tariffs did not rise).
  • Falsification test: descriptive_india_2014_2023_tariff_and_openness

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: IND
  • treatment_value: 43.7744247029952
  • donor_pool_median: 40.46466064780933
  • ratio: 1.0817939407423414
  • log_diff: 0.07862071935089299
  • n_donor_countries: 9
  • end_year_window: [2018, 2023]

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 13.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10779)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS (outcome, name=merchandise_imports_pct_gdp)
  • world_bank_wdi:TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS (outcome, name=weighted_applied_tariff)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T08:07:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.