IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·thailand_middle_income_plateau_state_coordination

Thailand's middle-income plateau (post-1997 and especially post-2005) is associated with weaker product-market competition, lower institutional quality, and fragmented state coordination capacity relative to East Asian peers that sustained convergence.

Despite successful early export-led development, Thailand's total factor productivity growth and GDP per capita convergence slowed because of entrenched oligopolistic structures, inconsistent infrastructure investment, and regulatory capture, after controlling for initial income, human capital, trade openness, and foreign direct investment inflows.

REFUTEDengine/runs/thailand_middle_income_plateau_state_coordination

REFUTED — coef=+0.125 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0646

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+0.125 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0646

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Product market competition
  • Institutional quality
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
  • Income per capita convergence gap
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/thailand_middle_income_plateau_state_coordination
1007550250198020002020THAKORTWNMYSVNMIDNPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 10 sampled countries over 1980–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for thailand_middle_income_plateau_state_coordination. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/thailand_middle_income_plateau_state_coordination/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:04Z

Thailand's middle-income plateau (post-1997 and especially post-2005) is associated with weaker product-market competition, lower institutional quality, and fragmented state coordination capacity relative to East Asian peers that sustained convergence. Despite successful early export-led development, Thailand's total factor productivity growth and GDP per capita convergence slowed because of entrenched oligopolistic structures, inconsistent infrastructure investment, and regulatory capture, after controlling for initial income, human capital, trade openness, and foreign direct investment inflows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if Thailand's TFP growth post-2005 is statistically indistinguishable from Vietnam's or South Korea's at comparable income levels, or if product-market competition and institutional quality do not carry positive and significant (p < 0.10) coefficients on TFP growth in the full panel.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_thailand_plateau_competition_institutions_1980_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
10 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel fixed-effects with interaction between competition and institutional quality.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap
outcome
pwt:rgdpetier 3
constructed_gap_to_usa
product_market_competition
treatment
oecd_pmr:pmrtier 4
level
institutional_quality
treatment
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level
regulatory_capture_proxy
treatment
constructed:concentration_of_political_connections_in_top_firmstier 5
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflows_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
infrastructure_quality
control
constructed:wef_gci_infrastructure_scoretier 5
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — thailand_middle_income_plateau_state_coordination

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+0.125 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0646

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Thailand's middle-income plateau (post-1997 and especially post-2005) is associated with weaker product-market competition, lower institutional quality, and fragmented state coordination capacity relative to East Asian peers that sustained convergence. Despite successful early export-led development, Thailand's total factor productivity growth and GDP per capita convergence slowed because of entrenched oligopolistic structures, inconsistent infrastructure investment, and regulatory capture, after controlling for initial income, human capital, trade openness, and foreign direct investment inflows.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if Thailand's TFP growth post-2005 is statistically indistinguishable from Vietnam's or South Korea's at comparable income levels, or if product-market competition and institutional quality do not carry positive and significant (p < 0.10) coefficients on TFP growth in the full panel.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_thailand_plateau_competition_institutions_1980_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.125
  • Std error: 0.06683
  • p-value: 0.0646
  • Observations: 126, countries: 6
  • Within R²: -1.34
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • pwt:rgdpe → gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • oecd_pmr:pmr → product_market_competition (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=14)
  • wgi:GE.EST → institutional_quality (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:concentration_of_political_connections_in_top_firms (treatment, name=regulatory_capture_proxy) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:wef_gci_infrastructure_score (controls, name=infrastructure_quality) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:04+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Thailand's plateau is confounded by the 1997 crisis balance-sheet effects and recurring political uncertainty. Fixed effects partial out country-invariant shocks but not within-country political cycles.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.