IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·sea_indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_2014_2024

Indonesia's Jokowi-era infrastructure push 2014-2024 — covering the toll-road expansion, MRT/LRT urban transit, port and airport upgrades, electrification programme, and 2024 Nusantara new-capital build — produced a measurable rise in gross fixed capital formation share of GDP and a logistics-cost reduction visible in the World Bank Logistics Performance Index.

By 2023, Indonesia's GFCF share rises by at least +2 percentage points above the 2010-2013 mean, and real GDP-pc growth through 2014-2019 (pre-COVID) averages at least 0.5pp/yr above the ASEAN-5 peer mean (PHL, MYS, THA, VNM).

REFUTEDengine/runs/sea_indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_2014_2024

REFUTED — coef=-1.171 (sign opposite claim +), p=1.21e-08

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-1.171 (sign opposite claim +), p=1.21e-08

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2008 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post jokowi indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Gross fixed capital formation pct income
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/sea_indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_2014_2024
1007550250200820162024IDNPHLMYSTHAVNM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 5 sampled countries over 2008–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for sea_indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_2014_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/sea_indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_2014_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:01Z

Indonesia's Jokowi-era infrastructure push 2014-2024 — covering the toll-road expansion, MRT/LRT urban transit, port and airport upgrades, electrification programme, and 2024 Nusantara new-capital build — produced a measurable rise in gross fixed capital formation share of GDP and a logistics-cost reduction visible in the World Bank Logistics Performance Index. By 2023, Indonesia's GFCF share rises by at least +2 percentage points above the 2010-2013 mean, and real GDP-pc growth through 2014-2019 (pre-COVID) averages at least 0.5pp/yr above the ASEAN-5 peer mean (PHL, MYS, THA, VNM).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH must hold): (1) GFCF / GDP for IDN averages at least +2pp above the 2010-2013 mean over 2017-2023; AND (2) real GDP-pc growth differential IDN minus ASEAN-5 peer mean (PHL, MYS, THA, VNM) averaged 2014-2019 is at least +0.5pp/yr. REFUTED if EITHER condition fails (no input-side push OR no output-side acceleration).

formal test & threshold
test:      indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_capex_and_growth_differential
threshold: PRIMARY 1: gfcf_pct_gdp(IDN, 2017-2023 mean) - gfcf_pct_gdp(IDN, 2010-2013 mean) >= 2. PRIMARY 2: gdp_pc_growth(IDN, 2014-2019 mean) - gdp_pc_growth(ASEAN5, 2014-2019 mean) >= 0.005. METHOD_VALID: WDI NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS and NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG for IDN and ASEAN-5 peers through 2023.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2008 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed effects panel. ASEAN-5 peer pool. Test 1 is country-level pre-post on GFCF share; Test 2 is panel-DiD on growth rate.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
gross_fixed_capital_formation_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
post_jokowi_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for IDN, year >= 2014tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — sea_indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_2014_2024

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-1.171 (sign opposite claim +), p=1.21e-08

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Indonesia's Jokowi-era infrastructure push 2014-2024 — covering the toll-road expansion, MRT/LRT urban transit, port and airport upgrades, electrification programme, and 2024 Nusantara new-capital build — produced a measurable rise in gross fixed capital formation share of GDP and a logistics-cost reduction visible in the World Bank Logistics Performance Index. By 2023, Indonesia's GFCF share rises by at least +2 percentage points above the 2010-2013 mean, and real GDP-pc growth through 2014-2019 (pre-COVID) averages at least 0.5pp/yr above the ASEAN-5 peer mean (PHL, MYS, THA, VNM).
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH must hold): (1) GFCF / GDP for IDN averages at least +2pp above the 2010-2013 mean over 2017-2023; AND (2) real GDP-pc growth differential IDN minus ASEAN-5 peer mean (PHL, MYS, THA, VNM) averaged 2014-2019 is at least +0.5pp/yr. REFUTED if EITHER condition fails (no input-side push OR no output-side acceleration).
  • Falsification test: indonesia_jokowi_infrastructure_capex_and_growth_differential

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -1.171
  • Std error: 0.1511
  • p-value: 1.21e-08
  • Observations: 51, countries: 3
  • Within R²: -0.00724
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS → gross_fixed_capital_formation_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9870)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for IDN, year >= 2014 → post_jokowi_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=85)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:01+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests whether the Jokowi infrastructure push translates into observable macro outcomes. GFCF share is the input-side test; pre-COVID growth differential is the output-side test.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.