IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·regulatory_quality_trade_growth

Higher regulatory quality strengthens the positive effect of trade openness on GDP growth, acting as a mediator for trade benefits.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/regulatory_quality_trade_growth

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.03355 (sign matches claim +), p=1.29e-05

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.03355 (sign matches claim +), p=1.29e-05

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade openness
What we checked
  • Income growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/regulatory_quality_trade_growth
1007550250199020072023GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gdp_growth across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for regulatory_quality_trade_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/regulatory_quality_trade_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bea2d5c · 2026-06-30T18:46:55Z
run generated · 2026-06-30T14:33:18Z

Higher regulatory quality strengthens the positive effect of trade openness on GDP growth, acting as a mediator for trade benefits.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_regulatory_quality_trade_growth
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
regulatory_quality
control
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level
gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — regulatory_quality_trade_growth

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.03355 (sign matches claim +), p=1.29e-05

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher regulatory quality strengthens the positive effect of trade openness on GDP growth, acting as a mediator for trade benefits.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_regulatory_quality_trade_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.03355
  • Std error: 0.007681
  • p-value: 1.29e-05
  • Observations: 3523, countries: 155
  • Within R²: -0.00503
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → regulatory_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5169)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-30T14:33:18+00:00

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.