IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline

A higher real effective exchange rate is associated with a decline in the share of high-tech exports.

PARTIALengine/runs/reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline

PARTIAL — coef=+0.06593, p=0.202 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.06593, p=0.202 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • WS EER
What we checked
  • TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline
1007550250199520092023GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS across 1 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bea2d5c · 2026-06-30T18:46:55Z
run generated · 2026-06-30T14:46:12Z

A higher real effective exchange rate is associated with a decline in the share of high-tech exports.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
WS_EER
treatment
bis:WS_EERtier 2
level
GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
control
world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZStier 2
level
NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
NY.GDP.PCAP.KD
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.06593, p=0.202 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: A higher real effective exchange rate is associated with a decline in the share of high-tech exports.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_reer_overvaluation_high_tech_decline

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.06593
  • Std error: 0.05163
  • p-value: 0.202
  • Observations: 747, countries: 48
  • Within R²: 0.0959
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • bis:WS_EER → WS_EER (treatment, publisher=bis, n=2112)
  • world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS → GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3140)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-30T14:46:12+00:00

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.