IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022

Countries that materially raise tax revenues as a share of GDP from 2000 to 2022 should usually also achieve large child-mortality reductions, consistent with state-capacity public-goods follow-through.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether tax revenue gain is actually linked to better or worse child mortality decline from 2000 to 2022.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 71 country or place units from 2000 to 2022, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tax revenue gain
What we checked
  • Child mortality decline
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022
1007550250200020112022AFGAIAALBARGARMATGAZE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show child_mortality_decline across 71 sampled countries over 2000–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 3fc4c7e · 2026-05-02T17:38:10Z

Countries that materially raise tax revenues as a share of GDP from 2000 to 2022 should usually also achieve large child-mortality reductions, consistent with state-capacity public-goods follow-through.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if n>=30, at least 75% of tax-gain countries reduce child mortality by >=30%, and the median decline is >=45%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median decline is <20%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022
threshold: n >= 30 AND pass_rate >= 0.75 AND median_child_mortality_decline_pct >= 45

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
71 countries · 2000 – 2022
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom endpoint/mean panel replication using local WDI/OWID vintages and fixed country-selection thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
child_mortality_decline
outcome
owid:child-mortality-around-the-worldtier 2
endpoint percent decline
tax_revenue_gain
treatment
owid:tax-revenues-as-a-share-of-gdptier 2
country selected if endpoint gain >= 3pp of GDP

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022

Verdict: supported - 62 of 71 countries passed (87.3%); median child_mortality_decline_pct = 55.42

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if n>=30, at least 75% of tax-gain countries reduce child mortality by >=30%, and the median decline is >=45%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median decline is <20%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 30 AND pass_rate >= 0.75 AND median_child_mortality_decline_pct >= 45

Metrics

  • n_countries: 71
  • countries_passing: 62
  • pass_rate: 0.8732394366197183
  • median_child_mortality_decline_pct: 55.4229112737033

Country Panel

| country_iso3 | country_name | tax_revenue_gain_pp | child_mortality_decline_pct | pass | |---|---|---|---|---| | AFG | Afghanistan | 4.25 | 56.00 | yes | | AIA | Anguilla | 3.73 | 50.97 | yes | | ALB | Albania | 4.08 | 62.89 | yes | | ARG | Argentina | 10.33 | 50.58 | yes | | ARM | Armenia | 4.60 | 66.46 | yes | | ATG | Antigua and Barbuda | 7.01 | 35.83 | yes | | AZE | Azerbaijan | 3.99 | 75.58 | yes | | BFA | Burkina Faso | 9.07 | 55.42 | yes | | BHS | Bahamas | 5.75 | 21.56 | no | | BLZ | Belize | 7.19 | 56.06 | yes | | BRA | Brazil | 3.33 | 59.24 | yes | | BTN | Bhutan | 5.28 | 72.33 | yes | | CHL | Chile | 5.21 | 52.36 | yes | | COD | Democratic Republic of Congo | 10.90 | 52.30 | yes | | COG | Congo | 4.01 | 62.50 | yes | | COL | Colombia | 7.50 | 51.88 | yes | | CPV | Cape Verde | 5.43 | 64.99 | yes | | CRI | Costa Rica | 4.05 | 40.87 | yes | | DMA | Dominica | 3.41 | -81.43 | no | | ECU | Ecuador | 4.50 | 59.26 | yes | | ESP | Spain | 3.78 | 27.94 | no | | FSM | Micronesia (country) | 9.74 | 40.60 | yes | | GEO | Georgia | 4.60 | 73.82 | yes | | GHA | Ghana | 6.04 | 57.40 | yes | | GIN | Guinea | 4.00 | 42.64 | yes | | GNB | Guinea-Bissau | 3.12 | 58.43 | yes | | GRC | Greece | 7.79 | 18.06 | no | | HKG | Hong Kong | 5.52 | 54.27 | yes | | HND | Honduras | 5.11 | 57.10 | yes | | IND | India | 3.06 | 67.97 | yes | | JAM | Jamaica | 4.81 | 6.33 | no | | JPN | Japan | 9.42 | 48.96 | yes | | KGZ | Kyrgyzstan | 10.14 | 64.63 | yes | | KHM | Cambodia | 6.31 | 76.74 | yes | | KOR | South Korea | 9.57 | 61.55 | yes | | LIE | Liechtenstein | 5.27 | 44.73 | yes | | MDA | Moldova | 5.61 | 53.29 | yes | | MDV | Maldives | 9.68 | 85.49 | yes | | MEX | Mexico | 4.88 | 51.59 | yes | | MLT | Malta | 6.09 | -20.14 | no | | MMR | Myanmar | 3.47 | 54.15 | yes | | MNE | Montenegro | 8.82 | 66.30 | yes | | MNG | Mongolia | 9.98 | 78.34 | yes | | MOZ | Mozambique | 12.48 | 61.60 | yes | | MRT | Mauritania | 5.21 | 59.33 | yes | | MUS | Mauritius | 4.68 | 19.73 | no | | MWI | Malawi | 7.84 | 75.76 | yes | | NIC | Nicaragua | 13.43 | 60.56 | yes | | NPL | Nepal | 10.27 | 65.32 | yes | | PAK | Pakistan | 4.16 | 43.58 | yes | | PER | Peru | 3.74 | 60.12 | yes | | PRT | Portugal | 5.09 | 45.23 | yes | | RWA | Rwanda | 7.48 | 78.77 | yes | | SAU | Saudi Arabia | 5.54 | 71.05 | yes | | SEN | Senegal | 6.29 | 70.75 | yes | | SLB | Solomon Islands | 10.84 | 40.76 | yes | | SLV | El Salvador | 10.49 | 63.94 | yes | | SUR | Suriname | 3.44 | 46.68 | yes | | SWZ | Eswatini | 4.81 | 54.37 | yes | | TGO | Togo | 3.38 | 49.68 | yes | | TJK | Tajikistan | 6.89 | 63.03 | yes | | TON | Tonga | 7.48 | 33.48 | yes | | TUN | Tunisia | 11.45 | 61.06 | yes | | TZA | Tanzania | 5.06 | 68.23 | yes | | UGA | Uganda | 3.91 | 71.16 | yes | | UKR | Ukraine | 4.73 | 52.80 | yes | | URY | Uruguay | 5.81 | 53.80 | yes | | VCT | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 6.47 | 34.26 | yes | | VEN | Venezuela | 7.31 | 13.59 | no | | WSM | Samoa | 7.01 | 24.68 | no | | ZAF | South Africa | 4.92 | 41.14 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive structural-screen verdict using local WDI/OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern, not a causal effect of a single policy lever.

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/owid_tax_capacity_child_mortality_followthrough_2000_2022.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.