IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·onshore_wind_lcoe_2010_2024_learning_curve_continuation

The onshore wind learning curve continued through the 2020-2024 supply-chain, commodity-price, and inflation shocks.

Global onshore-wind levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in 2024 remained below 2019 levels in real terms, and the 2010-2024 cost-capacity learning slope did not flatten materially relative to the 2010-2019 slope.

RUN PENDINGengine/runs/onshore_wind_lcoe_2010_2024_learning_curve_continuation

Result card available.

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether log cumulative installed wind capacity mw is actually linked to better or worse log onshore wind lcoe usd per mwh from 2010 to 2024.

plain answer

Result available.

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Log cumulative installed wind capacity mw
  • Post 2020 supply chain shock dummy
What we checked
  • Log onshore wind lcoe usd per mwh
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/onshore_wind_lcoe_2010_2024_learning_curve_continuation
1007550250201020172024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_onshore_wind_lcoe_usd_per_mwh across 1 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for onshore_wind_lcoe_2010_2024_learning_curve_continuation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/onshore_wind_lcoe_2010_2024_learning_curve_continuation/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4494fc0 · 2026-05-15T19:54:47Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T15:38:27Z

The onshore wind learning curve continued through the 2020-2024 supply-chain, commodity-price, and inflation shocks. Global onshore-wind levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in 2024 remained below 2019 levels in real terms, and the 2010-2024 cost-capacity learning slope did not flatten materially relative to the 2010-2019 slope.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if 2024 onshore-wind LCOE is below 2019 LCOE, the full 2010-2024 learning slope retains at least 85% of the absolute 2010-2019 slope, and the post-2020 flattening interaction is not positive and significant at p<0.10. PARTIAL if the LCOE level improves but one slope condition fails. REFUTED if 2024 LCOE is above 2019 or the full-sample learning slope retains less than 70% of the pre-2020 slope.

formal test & threshold
test:      onshore_wind_learning_curve_2010_2024
threshold: 2024 LCOE < 2019 LCOE; slope retention >= 0.85; no significant positive post-2020 slope interaction.

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
1 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Fit log(global onshore-wind LCOE) on log(global installed wind capacity), first for 2010-2019 and then for 2010-2024. Compare the implied learning rate per capacity doubling. A post-2020 interaction tests whether the slope materially flattened during the shock period.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_onshore_wind_lcoe_usd_per_mwh
outcome
irena:lcoe_wind_onshoretier 2
log
log_cumulative_installed_wind_capacity_mw
treatment
irena:installed_capacity_windtier 2
log
post_2020_supply_chain_shock_dummy
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 from 2020 onwardtier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - onshore_wind_lcoe_2010_2024_learning_curve_continuation

Verdict: supported - Onshore wind LCOE remained below 2019, the full-period learning slope is at least as strong as the pre-2020 slope, and the post-2020 flattening interaction is not significant.

Plain-English Brief

Onshore wind kept getting cheaper through the post-2020 shock period, and the cost decline did not show the same significant slowdown detected in the solar LCOE test.

What Was Measured

  • Global onshore-wind LCOE from IRENA, in 2024 USD per MWh.
  • Global installed wind capacity, summed from the IRENA country panel.
  • The learning-curve slope: how much cost falls when cumulative capacity doubles.
  • A post-2020 slowdown check: whether the cost decline visibly flattened after the shock period.

Result

  • 2010-2019 learning rate per doubling: 36.4%.
  • 2010-2024 learning rate per doubling: 41.7%.
  • Full-sample slope retained 119.5% of the pre-2020 slope.
  • Onshore-wind LCOE moved from $48.89/MWh in 2019 to $34.06/MWh in 2024.
  • Post-2020 flattening interaction: coefficient 0.246, p-value 0.293.

Sources

  • data/vintages/irena/lcoe_wind_onshore@2026-05-12T125721Z.parquet
  • data/vintages/irena/installed_capacity_wind@2026-05-05T212316Z.parquet

Generated by replication.py at 2026-05-15T15:38:27+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Created during the 2026-05-15 diverse data unlock pass after the IRENA onshore-wind LCOE workbook and installed-capacity panel were confirmed available locally.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.