IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel

Negative growth shocks translate into more persistent unemployment where employment protection is stricter.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether high employment protection rules x negative growth is actually linked to better or worse fwd unemployment change 2y from 1991 to 2019.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 1991 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • High employment protection rules x negative growth
What we checked
  • Fwd unemployment change 2y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel
1007550250199120052019AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_unemployment_change_2y across 37 sampled countries over 1991–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit d96513c · 2026-05-13T10:33:37Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:50Z

Negative growth shocks translate into more persistent unemployment where employment protection is stricter.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if `high_epl_x_negative_growth` clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel
threshold: {"coef_min": 0.25, "min_observations": 350, "min_units": 20, "p_max": 0.1, "raw_diff_min": 0.25}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
37 countries · 1991 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_unemployment_change_2y
outcome
local landed vintagesee runner
high_epl_x_negative_growth
treatment
local landed vintagesee runner
epl
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth
negative_growth
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth
unemployment_rate
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Negative growth shocks translate into more persistent unemployment where employment protection is stricter.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if high_epl_x_negative_growth clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local landed vintage (outcome, name=fwd_unemployment_change_2y) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (treatment, name=high_epl_x_negative_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=epl) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=negative_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=unemployment_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by A4 Batch 07-09 runner; reproducible via engine/runs/oecd_epl_growth_shock_unemployment_persistence_panel/replication.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.