IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·oecd_decoupling_pace_below_15c_joint_test

OECD economies 2010-2023 have absolutely decoupled territorial CO2 emissions from real GDP -- emissions fell while GDP rose -- AND the pace of that decoupling falls short of the rate consistent with a 1.5C-aligned linear pathway (50% reduction 2019-2030, ~7%/year).

The joint claim holds the absolute- decoupling fact (which refutes growth-requires-emissions necessity) AND the insufficient-pace finding (which refutes optimistic green-growth sufficiency). Both legs must hold; the spec is structured to refuse a one-leg-only verdict.

REFUTEDengine/runs/oecd_decoupling_pace_below_15c_joint_test

REFUTED — shape=panel_summary, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=0.38, ratio=1.46; threshold 50.0%, observed 38.0%

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. shape=panel_summary, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=0.38, ratio=1.46; threshold 50.0%, observed 38.0%

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 35 country or place units from 2010 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post paris indicator
What we checked
  • Log co2 per capita
  • Log real income per capita
  • Log consumption co2 per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_decoupling_pace_below_15c_joint_test
1007550250201020172023AUSAUTBELCANCHLCZEDNK
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_co2_per_capita across 35 sampled countries over 2010–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_decoupling_pace_below_15c_joint_test. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_decoupling_pace_below_15c_joint_test/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-29T21:54:23Z

OECD economies 2010-2023 have absolutely decoupled territorial CO2 emissions from real GDP -- emissions fell while GDP rose -- AND the pace of that decoupling falls short of the rate consistent with a 1.5C-aligned linear pathway (50% reduction 2019-2030, ~7%/year). The joint claim holds the absolute- decoupling fact (which refutes growth-requires-emissions necessity) AND the insufficient-pace finding (which refutes optimistic green-growth sufficiency). Both legs must hold; the spec is structured to refuse a one-leg-only verdict.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED iff BOTH (a) pooled OECD territorial CO2/cap 2023 / 2010 < 1.0 AND pooled OECD real GDP/cap 2023 / 2010 > 1.05 (absolute decoupling fact), AND (b) mean pace_gap_vs_15c across OECD-35 in 2023 > 0.05 (>= 5 percentage points above the 1.5C benchmark; pace insufficient). REFUTED if (a) fails (no decoupling) OR (b) fails by more than 5 pp (i.e. pace_gap < -0.05; pace actually faster than benchmark). PARTIAL if exactly one leg holds. INFORMATIVE: country-level dispersion, consumption-based cross- check, sub-period decomposition. METHOD_VALID: at least 28 of 35 OECD countries have both endpoints on territorial CO2pc and real GDPpc; OWID consumption-CO2 panel covers >= 25 OECD countries.

formal test & threshold
test:      oecd_joint_decoupling_fact_and_pace_gap_2010_2023
threshold: PRIMARY: pooled co2pc_2023 / co2pc_2010 < 1.0 AND pooled gdppc_2023 / gdppc_2010 > 1.05 AND mean pace_gap_vs_15c_2023 > 0.05.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
country
Sample
35 countries · 2010 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Joint two-leg test on the OECD-35 panel 2010-2023. Leg A (absolute-decoupling fact, holds the eco-socialist / PK-degrowth claim against simple green-growth sceptics): population-weighted mean territorial CO2 per capita 2023 vs 2010 declines AND population-weighted mean real GDP per capita 2023 vs 2010 rises. Leg B (insufficient-pace fact, holds against optimistic green-growth advocates): mean pace_gap_vs_15c is positive (i.e. observed 2023 emissions are above the 1.5C-consistent linear benchmark for 2023). Country- level dispersion reported (which countries are on/below pace, which are not). Consumption-based cross-check is reported as diagnostic; if territorial decoupled but consumption-based did not, the absolute-decoupling leg is annotated PARTIAL.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_co2_per_capita
outcome
owid:co-emissions-per-capitatier 2
log
log_real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
log_consumption_co2_per_capita
outcome
owid:consumption-co2-per-capitatier 2
log
pace_gap_vs_15c_pct
outcome
derived: (observed_co2_2023 / observed_co2_2019) - benchmark_15c_2023percentage_points
post_paris_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 for years >= 2016 (Paris Agreement entry into force)tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
log_oil_price
control
imf_pcps:POILAPSPtier 1
log
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_decoupling_pace_below_15c_joint_test

Verdict: REFUTED — shape=panel_summary, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=0.38, ratio=1.46; threshold 50.0%, observed 38.0%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: OECD economies 2010-2023 have absolutely decoupled territorial CO2 emissions from real GDP -- emissions fell while GDP rose -- AND the pace of that decoupling falls short of the rate consistent with a 1.5C-aligned linear pathway (50% reduction 2019-2030, ~7%/year). The joint claim holds the absolute- decoupling fact (which refutes growth-requires-emissions necessity) AND the insufficient-pace finding (which refutes optimistic green-growth sufficiency). Both legs must hold; the spec is structured to refuse a one-leg-only verdict.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED iff BOTH (a) pooled OECD territorial CO2/cap 2023 / 2010 < 1.0 AND pooled OECD real GDP/cap 2023 / 2010 > 1.05 (absolute decoupling fact), AND (b) mean pace_gap_vs_15c across OECD-35 in 2023 > 0.05 (>= 5 percentage points above the 1.5C benchmark; pace insufficient). REFUTED if (a) fails (no decoupling) OR (b) fails by more than 5 pp (i.e. pace_gap < -0.05; pace actually faster than benchmark). PARTIAL if exactly one leg holds. INFORMATIVE: country-level dispersion, consumption-based cross- check, sub-period decomposition. METHOD_VALID: at least 28 of 35 OECD countries have both endpoints on territorial CO2pc and real GDPpc; OWID consumption-CO2 panel covers >= 25 OECD countries.
  • Falsification test: oecd_joint_decoupling_fact_and_pace_gap_2010_2023

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: AUS
  • treatment_value: 2.724774515261273
  • donor_pool_median: 1.8633255390915475
  • ratio: 1.4623180212458846
  • log_diff: 0.38002286246448613
  • n_donor_countries: 34
  • end_year_window: [2018, 2023]

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 50.0}

Variables resolved

  • owid:co-emissions-per-capita → log_co2_per_capita (outcome, publisher=owid, n=25363)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17000)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10395)

Variables missing data

  • owid:consumption-co2-per-capita (outcome, name=log_consumption_co2_per_capita)
  • derived: (observed_co2_2023 / observed_co2_2019) - benchmark_15c_2023 (outcome, name=pace_gap_vs_15c_pct)
  • constructed: 1 for years >= 2016 (Paris Agreement entry into force) (treatment, name=post_paris_indicator)
  • imf_pcps:POILAPSP (controls, name=log_oil_price)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-29T21:54:23+00:00

Notes

Distinct from eu_green_deal_decoupling_pace_vs_target which is an EU-16 panel 2019-2023 around the Green Deal as named treatment. This spec covers the broader OECD-35 panel 2010-2023 with no named policy treatment, joint-testing the decoupling-fact and pace-shortfall on the same observation. WDI + OWID inputs are on disk for OECD; consumption-CO2 OWID panel coverage for non-EU OECD members (KOR, JPN, CAN, AUS, USA, MEX, CHL, TUR) needs confirmation -- spec gates inconclusive on the consumption-side leg if missing.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.