IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment

Active labour-market programme spending is associated with lower low-education unemployment.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether socx active income is actually linked to better or worse low education unemployment from 1986 to 2019.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 36 country or place units from 1986 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Socx active income
What we checked
  • Low education unemployment
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment
1007550250198620032019AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show low_education_unemployment across 36 sampled countries over 1986–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit d96513c · 2026-05-13T10:33:37Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:45Z

Active labour-market programme spending is associated with lower low-education unemployment.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if `socx_active_gdp` clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment
threshold: {"coef_max": -0.25, "min_observations": 250, "min_units": 15, "p_max": 0.1, "raw_diff_max": -0.4}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
36 countries · 1986 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
low_education_unemployment
outcome
local landed vintagesee runner
socx_active_gdp
treatment
local landed vintagesee runner
epl
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth
gdp_growth
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Active labour-market programme spending is associated with lower low-education unemployment.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if socx_active_gdp clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local landed vintage (outcome, name=low_education_unemployment) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (treatment, name=socx_active_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=epl) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=gdp_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by A4 Batch 07-09 runner; reproducible via engine/runs/oecd_activation_spending_low_education_unemployment/replication.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.