IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel

Across a pre-registered narrower OECD/market-peer panel from 1996 to 2021, stronger fiscal balances predict deeper private credit intermediation after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls.

This tests the crowding-out, risk-premium, and fiscal-expectations channels as a second-wave market-order hypothesis rather than reusing the Heritage latest-year cross-section.

REFUTEDengine/runs/market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel

REFUTED — coef=-1.028 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0788

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fiscal balance share is actually linked to better or worse private credit depth from 1996 to 2021.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-1.028 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0788

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 33 country or place units from 1996 to 2021, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fiscal balance share
What we checked
  • Private credit depth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel
1007550250199620092021AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCZE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show private_credit_depth across 33 sampled countries over 1996–2021.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 10b90c4 · 2026-05-03T09:34:08Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:24Z

Across a pre-registered narrower OECD/market-peer panel from 1996 to 2021, stronger fiscal balances predict deeper private credit intermediation after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls. This tests the crowding-out, risk-premium, and fiscal-expectations channels as a second-wave market-order hypothesis rather than reusing the Heritage latest-year cross-section.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the coefficient on fiscal_balance_share is positively signed at p<0.10 with at least 30 usable observations after listwise deletion. REFUTED if the coefficient is significantly opposite-signed at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
33 countries · 1996 – 2021
Evidence type
associational

Primary test is two-way fixed effects with country-clustered standard errors. This is a registered associational hurdle; causal promotion requires a sharper subsequent design.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
private_credit_depth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level
fiscal_balance_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
population_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROWtier 2
level
trade_openness_control
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-1.028 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0788

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across a pre-registered narrower OECD/market-peer panel from 1996 to 2021, stronger fiscal balances predict deeper private credit intermediation after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls. This tests the crowding-out, risk-premium, and fiscal-expectations channels as a second-wave market-order hypothesis rather than reusing the Heritage latest-year cross-section.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the coefficient on fiscal_balance_share is positively signed at p<0.10 with at least 30 usable observations after listwise deletion. REFUTED if the coefficient is significantly opposite-signed at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_order_fiscal_balance_private_credit_depth_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -1.028
  • Std error: 0.584
  • p-value: 0.0788
  • Observations: 668, countries: 32
  • Within R²: -0.177
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit_depth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS → fiscal_balance_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=5147)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROW → population_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16672)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_control (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:24+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Second-wave market-order panel test. Do not edit v1 after first run.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.