IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·maoist_precondition_for_deng_reform_growth

Maoist China's 1949-1976 infrastructure and literacy expansion produced the human-capital base that enabled post-1978 reform growth; pre-1978 development was a precondition, not a failure.

PARTIALengine/runs/maoist_precondition_for_deng_reform_growth

PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.294; threshold not extracted

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=pre_post, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.294; threshold not extracted

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1949 to 1990, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Life expectancy at birth
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted long run
  • Primary school enrolment net
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/maoist_precondition_for_deng_reform_growth
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-28T12:41:49Z

Maoist China's 1949-1976 infrastructure and literacy expansion produced the human-capital base that enabled post-1978 reform growth; pre-1978 development was a precondition, not a failure.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY 1 (dispositive): CHN life expectancy at birth 1976 must be at least 1.30 times the CHN 1949 baseline level, i.e. a 30% rise from baseline (the "≥30% above 1949" leg of the spec's prose rule). PRIMARY 2 (dispositive): CHN life expectancy at birth 1976 must be at or above the LMIC peer-median 1976 (peer set: IND, IDN, PAK, BRA, MEX, EGY, NGA, TUR, THA, PHL, IRN). This is the "not below LMIC median" leg of the spec's prose rule, applied to the most-defensible Mao-era series rather than to all three indicators (literacy and primary-enrolment series have near-zero CHN coverage before 1980 and cannot dispositively grade the claim — they are kept as INFORMATIVE). SUPPORTED iff BOTH primaries hold. REFUTED iff BOTH fail. partial if exactly one holds. inconclusive if the LMIC peer panel has fewer than 6 countries with 1976 data, or if the CHN 1949 baseline is missing. INFORMATIVE: GDP-pc level 1976 vs LMIC peer median (Maddison MPD2020), primary-school gross enrolment near 1976 (WDI SE.PRM.ENRR), adult literacy rate near 1976 (WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS). METHOD_VALID: china_manual:life_expectancy_at_birth_years contains a CHN 1949 datum; un_wpp:life_expectancy_at_birth (or WDI fallback) covers at least 6 of the 11 LMIC peers in 1976.

formal test & threshold
test:      chn_life_expectancy_1949_1976_vs_lmic_peer_median
threshold: PRIMARY 1: le_chn_1976 / le_chn_1949 >= 1.30. PRIMARY 2: le_chn_1976 >= median(le_lmic_peers_1976).

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1949 – 1990
Evidence type
descriptive

Single-country descriptive trajectory of Chinese pre-1978 human-capital metrics: literacy rate, life expectancy, primary-school enrolment, basic industrial capacity. Tests whether pre-reform indicators reached levels that plausibly enabled the post-1978 productivity catch-up.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
life_expectancy_at_birth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp_long_run
outcome
maddison:gdppc_ppptier 3
log
primary_school_enrolment_net
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.PRM.NENRtier 2
level
literacy_rate_adult
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.ADT.LITR.ZStier 2
level
under5_mortality_rate
outcome
un_igme:U5MRtier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — maoist_precondition_for_deng_reform_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches; |Δ_log|=0.294; threshold not extracted

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Maoist China's 1949-1976 infrastructure and literacy expansion produced the human-capital base that enabled post-1978 reform growth; pre-1978 development was a precondition, not a failure.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY 1 (dispositive): CHN life expectancy at birth 1976 must be at least 1.30 times the CHN 1949 baseline level, i.e. a 30% rise from baseline (the "≥30% above 1949" leg of the spec's prose rule). PRIMARY 2 (dispositive): CHN life expectancy at birth 1976 must be at or above the LMIC peer-median 1976 (peer set: IND, IDN, PAK, BRA, MEX, EGY, NGA, TUR, THA, PHL, IRN). This is the "not below LMIC median" leg of the spec's prose rule, applied to the most-defensible Mao-era series rather than to all three indicators (literacy and primary-enrolment series have near-zero CHN coverage before 1980 and cannot dispositively grade the claim — they are kept as INFORMATIVE). SUPPORTED iff BOTH primaries hold. REFUTED iff BOTH fail. partial if exactly one holds. inconclusive if the LMIC peer panel has fewer than 6 countries with 1976 data, or if the CHN 1949 baseline is missing. INFORMATIVE: GDP-pc level 1976 vs LMIC peer median (Maddison MPD2020), primary-school gross enrolment near 1976 (WDI SE.PRM.ENRR), adult literacy rate near 1976 (WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS). METHOD_VALID: china_manual:life_expectancy_at_birth_years contains a CHN 1949 datum; un_wpp:life_expectancy_at_birth (or WDI fallback) covers at least 6 of the 11 LMIC peers in 1976.
  • Falsification test: chn_life_expectancy_1949_1976_vs_lmic_peer_median

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: CHN
  • cut_year: 1976
  • pre_mean: 53.4134375
  • post_mean: 71.64922448979591
  • delta: 18.235786989795912
  • log_delta: 0.2937199777386241
  • n_pre: 16
  • n_post: 49

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy_at_birth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16996)
  • maddison:gdppc_ppp → log_gdp_pc_ppp_long_run (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.PRM.NENR → primary_school_enrolment_net (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=5992)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.ADT.LITR.ZS → literacy_rate_adult (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2755)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17000)

Variables missing data

  • un_igme:U5MR (outcome, name=under5_mortality_rate)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-28T12:41:49+00:00

Notes

Seeded from a Marxist-Leninist claim that pre-1978 Maoist literacy and basic health expansion built the human-capital base that enabled the post-1978 catch-up. Single-country descriptive trajectory; PRC pre-reform statistics require human review for series quality before pre-registration.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.