IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·life_satisfaction_income_market_institutions

In high-income countries 1990-2020, gains in life satisfaction (subjective well-being) are more strongly associated with real income growth, employment opportunity, and institutional trust than with the intensity of state economic planning or public-sector employment share.

The claim is bounded to countries already above the World Bank high- income threshold, separating catch-up wellbeing gains from frontier dynamics.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/life_satisfaction_income_market_institutions

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:SWB.LS', 'constructed:world_happiness_report_ladder']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:SWB.LS', 'constructed:world_happiness_report_ladder']

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Employment rate
What we checked
  • Life satisfaction index
  • Happiness index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

5 input datasets, 5 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/life_satisfaction_income_market_institutions
1007550250199020052020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show life_satisfaction_index across 31 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for life_satisfaction_income_market_institutions. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/life_satisfaction_income_market_institutions/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:49:16Z

In high-income countries 1990-2020, gains in life satisfaction (subjective well-being) are more strongly associated with real income growth, employment opportunity, and institutional trust than with the intensity of state economic planning or public-sector employment share. The claim is bounded to countries already above the World Bank high- income threshold, separating catch-up wellbeing gains from frontier dynamics.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if state-planning intensity has a positive and significant (p < 0.10) association with life-satisfaction gains larger than that of income growth or employment opportunity in a high-income panel, or if market-institution proxies are negatively and significantly associated with well-being.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_life_satisfaction_drivers_high_income_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
life_satisfaction_index
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SWB.LStier 2
level
happiness_index
outcome
constructed:world_happiness_report_laddertier 5
level
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
employment_rate
treatment
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
level
institutional_trust_index
treatment
vdem:v2x_corrtier 4
level
state_planning_intensity
treatment
constructed:government_consumption_plus_soe_sharetier 5
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
gini_index
control
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
social_expenditure_gdp
control
oecd:OECD.SOCXtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — life_satisfaction_income_market_institutions

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:SWB.LS', 'constructed:world_happiness_report_ladder']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In high-income countries 1990-2020, gains in life satisfaction (subjective well-being) are more strongly associated with real income growth, employment opportunity, and institutional trust than with the intensity of state economic planning or public-sector employment share. The claim is bounded to countries already above the World Bank high- income threshold, separating catch-up wellbeing gains from frontier dynamics.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if state-planning intensity has a positive and significant (p < 0.10) association with life-satisfaction gains larger than that of income growth or employment opportunity in a high-income panel, or if market-institution proxies are negatively and significantly associated with well-being.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_life_satisfaction_drivers_high_income_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:SWB.LS', 'constructed:world_happiness_report_ladder']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE → employment_rate (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=1825)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_index (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SWB.LS (outcome, name=life_satisfaction_index) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:world_happiness_report_ladder (outcome, name=happiness_index) — vintage not on disk
  • vdem:v2x_corr (treatment, name=institutional_trust_index) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:government_consumption_plus_soe_share (treatment, name=state_planning_intensity) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:OECD.SOCX (controls, name=social_expenditure_gdp) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:49:16+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.