IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff

Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador resource-nationalisation programmes 2000-2015 financed measurable social-outcome gains (poverty reduction, literacy) despite extractive-output costs, a Pareto-dominance structure depending on normative weighting.

PARTIALengine/runs/latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff

PARTIAL — coef=-6.367, p=6.16e-06; claim direction not auto-inferred

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether nationalisation event is actually linked to better or worse poverty headcount national from 2000 to 2015.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-6.367, p=6.16e-06; claim direction not auto-inferred

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 2000 to 2015, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Nationalisation event
  • State share of extractive value added
What we checked
  • Poverty headcount national
  • Inequality disposable income
  • Literacy rate adult
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff
1007550250200020082015VENBOLECUPERCOLCHLBRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show poverty_headcount_national across 9 sampled countries over 2000–2015.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

10 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:49:16Z

Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador resource-nationalisation programmes 2000-2015 financed measurable social-outcome gains (poverty reduction, literacy) despite extractive-output costs, a Pareto-dominance structure depending on normative weighting.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the estimated coefficient on the treatment variable is not negative at conventional significance (p < 0.05) in the preregistered panel specification with country and year fixed effects.

formal test & threshold
test:      latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff_placeholder_test

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
9 countries · 2000 – 2015
Evidence type
associational

LatAm panel (treated: VEN, BOL, ECU; donor pool: PER, COL, CHL, BRA, MEX) regressing social-outcome and extractive-output indices on resource-nationalisation intensity with country and year FE. Robustness: synthetic-control gap on each treated country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
poverty_headcount_national
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.NAHCtier 2
level
gini_disposable_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
literacy_rate_adult
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.ADT.LITR.ZStier 2
level
life_expectancy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
oil_production_index
outcome
imf_pcps:Oiltier 1
log
nationalisation_event
treatment
derived:latam_nationalisation_datestier 4
indicator
state_share_of_extractive_value_added
treatment
derived:latam_state_extractive_sharetier 4
share
oil_price_brent
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-6.367, p=6.16e-06; claim direction not auto-inferred

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador resource-nationalisation programmes 2000-2015 financed measurable social-outcome gains (poverty reduction, literacy) despite extractive-output costs, a Pareto-dominance structure depending on normative weighting.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the estimated coefficient on the treatment variable is not negative at conventional significance (p < 0.05) in the preregistered panel specification with country and year fixed effects.
  • Falsification test: latam_resource_nationalisation_social_outcome_tradeoff_placeholder_test

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -6.367
  • Std error: 1.031
  • p-value: 6.16e-06
  • Observations: 42, countries: 4
  • Within R²: 0.788
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.NAHC → poverty_headcount_national (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1172)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_disposable_income (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.ADT.LITR.ZS → literacy_rate_adult (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2704)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14443)
  • imf_pcps:Oil → oil_production_index (outcome, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)
  • derived:latam_nationalisation_dates → nationalisation_event (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=144)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=333)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • derived:latam_state_extractive_share (treatment, name=state_share_of_extractive_value_added) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:49:16+00:00

Notes

Maps the eco-socialist school's resource-nationalisation/social-outcomes claim to a LatAm panel vs synthetic donor pool. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.