IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_uk_thatcher_union_law_1980s

The UK 1980-1988 Thatcher Employment Acts (1980, 1982, 1984, 1988 — picketing restrictions, secondary-action ban, ballot requirements, closed-shop restrictions) reduced UK strike days lost per 1000 employees by at least 80% between 1980 and 1990 relative to a synthetic control of European peers, and lowered the union-wage premium without producing a measurable employment-rate gain.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_uk_thatcher_union_law_1980s

PARTIAL - local union-density proxy is not below synthetic control by 1990; strike-days and union-wage-premium legs remain unavailable

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether thatcher employment acts 1980 1988 is actually linked to better or worse strike days lost per 1000 employees from 1975 to 1995.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. local union-density proxy is not below synthetic control by 1990; strike-days and union-wage-premium legs remain unavailable

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1975 to 1995, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Thatcher employment acts 1980 1988
What we checked
  • Strike days lost per 1000 employees
  • Union density
  • Employment to population ratio
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_uk_thatcher_union_law_1980s
1007550250197519851995GBRFRADEUITAESPNLDBEL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show strike_days_lost_per_1000_employees across 8 sampled countries over 1975–1995.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_uk_thatcher_union_law_1980s. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_uk_thatcher_union_law_1980s/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T20:57:45Z

The UK 1980-1988 Thatcher Employment Acts (1980, 1982, 1984, 1988 — picketing restrictions, secondary-action ban, ballot requirements, closed-shop restrictions) reduced UK strike days lost per 1000 employees by at least 80% between 1980 and 1990 relative to a synthetic control of European peers, and lowered the union-wage premium without producing a measurable employment-rate gain.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on UK strike-days lost per 1000 employees < -80% by 1990 AND union-wage-premium gap shows a statistically significant negative coefficient at p<0.10. REFUTED if strike-days gap < -50% (insufficient bite) OR if union-wage-premium gap is wrong-signed at p<0.10. PARTIAL if both met but employment-rate gap is also significantly positive (employment-bonus) — that pattern would shift the welfare interpretation.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on UK strike-days, union-wage premium, and employment rate 1980-1990 vs European donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 1975 – 1995
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
strike_days_lost_per_1000_employees
outcome
oecd:DSD_LFStier 2
log
union_density
outcome
oecd:DSD_LFStier 2
level
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
thatcher_employment_acts_1980_1988
treatment
constructed:cumulative indicator across 1980, 1982, 1984, 1988 Employment Actstier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - labour_reform_uk_thatcher_union_law_1980s

Verdict: PARTIAL - local union-density proxy is not below synthetic control by 1990; strike-days and union-wage-premium legs remain unavailable

Local Proxy Synthetic Controls

  • Union-density donor weights: ITA=1.000.
  • Union-density mean 1980-1990 gap: 4.66 pp.
  • Union-density 1990 gap: 1.70 pp.
  • JST unemployment mean 1980-1990 gap: -2.33 pp.

Primary strike-days and union-wage-premium data are still absent locally, so this remains a proxy benchmark.

Generated by engine/runs/labour_reform_uk_thatcher_union_law_1980s/replication.py at 2026-05-17T20:57:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment is a sequence of four Employment Acts plus the 1985 Trade Union Act. Treated as a cumulative bundle. UK is the canonical Anglo deunionisation case. The employment-channel test is symmetric: the spec lets a heterodox reader argue that the reforms suppressed union wages without expanding employment.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.