IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_france_35_hour_2000_employment_effect

France's 1998-2002 35-hour week law (Aubry I 1998, Aubry II 2000) did not produce the predicted +700,000 net jobs claimed by proponents; the synthetic-DiD gap on French employment rate 2000-2005 vs euro-area peers is below +1.0 pp and statistically indistinguishable from zero, while real wage growth slowed measurably.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_france_35_hour_2000_employment_effect

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.8692, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether aubry 35 hour enactment is actually linked to better or worse employment to population ratio from 1990 to 2007.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+0.8692, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1990 to 2007, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Aubry 35 hour enactment
What we checked
  • Employment to population ratio
  • Average annual hours worked
  • Real wage index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_france_35_hour_2000_employment_effect
1007550250199019992007FRADEUITAESPNLDBELAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment_to_population_ratio across 8 sampled countries over 1990–2007.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_france_35_hour_2000_employment_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_france_35_hour_2000_employment_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:51:39Z

France's 1998-2002 35-hour week law (Aubry I 1998, Aubry II 2000) did not produce the predicted +700,000 net jobs claimed by proponents; the synthetic-DiD gap on French employment rate 2000-2005 vs euro-area peers is below +1.0 pp and statistically indistinguishable from zero, while real wage growth slowed measurably.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED (work-sharing-effective claim) if synth-DiD gap on French employment rate > +1.0 pp by 2005 at p<0.10 AND real-wage growth gap is not statistically more negative than -1.0 pp. REFUTED if employment gap is < +0.5 pp OR wrong-signed at p<0.10. PARTIAL if employment gap meets threshold but real wage growth falls by more than 1pp relative to donor pool.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on French employment rate and real-wage growth 2000-2005 vs euro-area donor pool, placebo permutation inference at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 1990 – 2007
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
average_annual_hours_worked
outcome
pwt:avhtier 3
level
real_wage_index
outcome
oecd:DSD_EARNtier 2
log
aubry_35_hour_enactment
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2000-Q1 Aubry II enactmenttier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_france_35_hour_2000_employment_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.8692, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=1 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: France's 1998-2002 35-hour week law (Aubry I 1998, Aubry II 2000) did not produce the predicted +700,000 net jobs claimed by proponents; the synthetic-DiD gap on French employment rate 2000-2005 vs euro-area peers is below +1.0 pp and statistically indistinguishable from zero, while real wage growth slowed measurably.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED (work-sharing-effective claim) if synth-DiD gap on French employment rate > +1.0 pp by 2005 at p<0.10 AND real-wage growth gap is not statistically more negative than -1.0 pp. REFUTED if employment gap is < +0.5 pp OR wrong-signed at p<0.10. PARTIAL if employment gap meets threshold but real wage growth falls by more than 1pp relative to donor pool.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: FRA
  • event_year: 1998
  • n_donors: 7
  • donor_weights (top): {'BEL': 0.5255, 'DEU': 0.3861, 'ITA': 0.0884, 'ESP': 0.0, 'NLD': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 0.2218400492631751
  • pre_period_sd: 0.724124002798259
  • mean_post_gap: 0.8692189057980328
  • end_period_gap: 0.634079364107798
  • post_period_years: [1998, 2007]
  • placebo_p_value: 1.0
  • n_placebos: 7
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → employment_to_population_ratio (outcome, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:51:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2000-Q1 (firms over 20 employees mandate). This is a heterodox-leaning hypothesis structured to favour the social-democratic claim if the data support it: it sets a dispositive threshold rather than the strong null. The spec is therefore symmetric — heterodox readers can win cleanly by hitting +1.0pp.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.