IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·human_capital_tfp_divergence

Higher human capital accumulation is associated with greater TFP divergence across countries, amplifying productivity gaps over time.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/human_capital_tfp_divergence

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:ctfp']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:ctfp']

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Human capital
What we checked
  • Productivity divergence
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/human_capital_tfp_divergence
1007550250199020072023GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_divergence across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for human_capital_tfp_divergence. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/human_capital_tfp_divergence/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bea2d5c · 2026-06-30T18:46:55Z
run generated · 2026-06-30T14:33:20Z

Higher human capital accumulation is associated with greater TFP divergence across countries, amplifying productivity gaps over time.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_human_capital_tfp_divergence
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_divergence
outcome
pwt:ctfptier 3
level
human_capital
treatment
pwt:hctier 3
level
gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — human_capital_tfp_divergence

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:ctfp']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher human capital accumulation is associated with greater TFP divergence across countries, amplifying productivity gaps over time.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_human_capital_tfp_divergence

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:ctfp']

Variables resolved

  • pwt:hc → human_capital (treatment, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • pwt:ctfp (outcome, name=tfp_divergence) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-30T14:33:20+00:00

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.