IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·greek_fiscal_dominance_currency_user_distinction

Greek fiscal crisis 2010-2015 was fundamentally a currency-user crisis (Greece issued no sovereign euro), not evidence of fiscal limits on sovereign currency-issuers.

PARTIALengine/runs/greek_fiscal_dominance_currency_user_distinction

PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=-0.1927, p=0.408; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether greek crisis event is actually linked to better or worse sovereign yield 10y from 2007 to 2018.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=TWFE, coef=-0.1927, p=0.408; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2007 to 2018, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Greek crisis event
  • Currency user indicator
What we checked
  • Sovereign yield 10y
  • Real income growth
  • Sovereign cds 5y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/greek_fiscal_dominance_currency_user_distinction
1007550250200720132018GRCISLIRLPRTESPITAGBR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show sovereign_yield_10y across 7 sampled countries over 2007–2018.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for greek_fiscal_dominance_currency_user_distinction. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/greek_fiscal_dominance_currency_user_distinction/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Modern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:04:27Z

Greek fiscal crisis 2010-2015 was fundamentally a currency-user crisis (Greece issued no sovereign euro), not evidence of fiscal limits on sovereign currency-issuers.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Event-study around May-2010, Mar-2012 PSI, and Jul-2015 capital-controls; Greek GGB spread response > non-eurozone peripheral (e.g. ISL) by >500bp at p<0.10 supports currency-user mechanism.

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
episode
Sample
7 countries · 2007 – 2018
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Event-study around the May-2010 first Greek bailout / Mar-2012 PSI / Jul-2015 capital controls; outcome is GGB spread, redenomination probability, and GDP contraction relative to non-eurozone peripherals. Mechanism contrasts currency-user constraint vs sovereign-currency-issuer counterfactual (e.g. ISL). Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
sovereign_yield_10y
outcome
ecb:financial_markets_yields_10yrtier 1
eurostat:irt_lt_mcby_atier 1
fred:IRLTLT01ISM156Ntier 1
level
real_gdp_growth
outcome
eurostat:nama_10_gdptier 1
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
pct_change_yoy
sovereign_cds_5y
outcome
academic:bloomberg_cdstier 4
level
greek_crisis_event
treatment
constructed:events = 2010-05 (first bailout), 2012-03 (PSI), 2015-07 (capital controls / referendum)tier 5
event_date
currency_user_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for euro-area members (no sovereign monetary policy), 0 for ISL/GBRtier 5
binary
government_debt_pct_gdp
control
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1tier 1
level
current_account_pct_gdp
control
imf:BCA_NGDPDtier 2
level
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
bis:WS_CBPOLtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — greek_fiscal_dominance_currency_user_distinction

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=-0.1927, p=0.408; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Greek fiscal crisis 2010-2015 was fundamentally a currency-user crisis (Greece issued no sovereign euro), not evidence of fiscal limits on sovereign currency-issuers.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Event-study around May-2010, Mar-2012 PSI, and Jul-2015 capital-controls; Greek GGB spread response > non-eurozone peripheral (e.g. ISL) by >500bp at p<0.10 supports currency-user mechanism.
  • Event year: 2010

Estimate

  • coefficient: -0.19273546240176134
  • std_error: 0.23275968144060055
  • p_value: 0.4076450838124227
  • n_obs: 72
  • n_countries: 6
  • r_squared_within: 0.72642793205971
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: event-study TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: ['ecb_policy_rate']

Variables resolved

  • ecb:financial_markets_yields_10yr; eurostat:irt_lt_mcby_a; fred:IRLTLT01ISM156N → sovereign_yield_10y (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=1040)
  • eurostat:nama_10_gdp; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=1452)
  • constructed: binary = 1 for euro-area members (no sovereign monetary policy), 0 for ISL/GBR → currency_user_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=84)
  • imf:GGXWDG_NGDP; eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1 → government_debt_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • imf:BCA_NGDPD → current_account_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=imf, n=10556)
  • ecb:FM:STN; bis:WS_CBPOL → ecb_policy_rate (controls, publisher=bis, n=2119)

Variables missing data

  • academic:bloomberg_cds (outcome, name=sovereign_cds_5y)
  • constructed: events = 2010-05 (first bailout), 2012-03 (PSI), 2015-07 (capital controls / referendum) (treatment, name=greek_crisis_event)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T15:04:27+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from MMT framing of Greece 2010-15 as a currency-user (not currency-issuer) crisis. Human review required before promotion.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.