IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·education_spending_inequality_developing

Higher education spending as a share of GDP is associated with lower Gini inequality, especially in developing economies.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/education_spending_inequality_developing

SUPPORTED — coef=-0.7826 (sign matches claim -), p=0.00134

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS is actually linked to better or worse SI.POV.GINI from 1995 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-0.7826 (sign matches claim -), p=0.00134

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS
What we checked
  • SI.POV.GINI
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/education_spending_inequality_developing
1007550250199520092023GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show SI.POV.GINI across 1 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for education_spending_inequality_developing. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/education_spending_inequality_developing/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bea2d5c · 2026-06-30T18:46:55Z
run generated · 2026-06-30T14:46:13Z

Higher education spending as a share of GDP is associated with lower Gini inequality, especially in developing economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_education_spending_inequality_developing
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
SI.POV.GINI
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
NY.GDP.PCAP.KD
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
RL.EST
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — education_spending_inequality_developing

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-0.7826 (sign matches claim -), p=0.00134

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher education spending as a share of GDP is associated with lower Gini inequality, especially in developing economies.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_education_spending_inequality_developing

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.7826
  • Std error: 0.2433
  • p-value: 0.00134
  • Observations: 1216, countries: 123
  • Within R²: 0.173
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → SI.POV.GINI (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS → SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6235)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → RL.EST (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-30T14:46:13+00:00

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.