IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_israel_soviet_absorption_1989_1994

Israel absorbed approximately 900,000 Soviet Jewish immigrants 1989-1994 (~20% of the pre-immigration population).

The hypothesis tests whether the high-skill composition (engineers, scientists, doctors) of the inflow is associated with measurable productivity gains and tech-sector employment growth in Israel 1990-2010, supporting the canonical view that Israel's tech-cluster emergence was substantially Soviet-immigrant-enabled.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_israel_soviet_absorption_1989_1994

PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=-0.1812, z=-15; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=ITS, mean_gap=-0.1812, z=-15; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1985 to 2010, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Soviet inflow indicator
What we checked
  • Real income per capita
  • Foreign born share population
  • Total factor productivity
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_israel_soviet_absorption_1989_1994
1007550250198519982010ISR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita across 1 sampled countries over 1985–2010.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_israel_soviet_absorption_1989_1994. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_israel_soviet_absorption_1989_1994/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:41Z

Israel absorbed approximately 900,000 Soviet Jewish immigrants 1989-1994 (~20% of the pre-immigration population). The hypothesis tests whether the high-skill composition (engineers, scientists, doctors) of the inflow is associated with measurable productivity gains and tech-sector employment growth in Israel 1990-2010, supporting the canonical view that Israel's tech-cluster emergence was substantially Soviet-immigrant-enabled.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if foreign-born share rises by at least 15pp 1989-1994 AND post-1994 TFP growth exceeds pre-1989 trend by at least 0.5pp annualised through 2005. REFUTED if foreign-born share rise < 10pp OR TFP gain insignificant against pre-trend.

formal test & threshold
test:      event_study_israel_soviet_absorption
threshold: foreign_born_share_rise >= 15.0 AND tfp_growth_premium >= 0.5

Method

Template
event_study
Sample
1 countries · 1985 – 2010
Evidence type
descriptive

Event-study around 1989-1994 with Israel as the single treated unit; report break in foreign-born share, TFP, and per-capita output. Counterfactual based on linear extrapolation of 1985-1988 trend.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log
foreign_born_share_population
outcome
un_desa:international_migrant_stocktier 2
level
total_factor_productivity
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
soviet_inflow_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator pulses 1989-1994 for ISRtier 5
indicator
tertiary_attainment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
level
gross_capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_israel_soviet_absorption_1989_1994

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=-0.1812, z=-15; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Israel absorbed approximately 900,000 Soviet Jewish immigrants 1989-1994 (~20% of the pre-immigration population). The hypothesis tests whether the high-skill composition (engineers, scientists, doctors) of the inflow is associated with measurable productivity gains and tech-sector employment growth in Israel 1990-2010, supporting the canonical view that Israel's tech-cluster emergence was substantially Soviet-immigrant-enabled.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if foreign-born share rises by at least 15pp 1989-1994 AND post-1994 TFP growth exceeds pre-1989 trend by at least 0.5pp annualised through 2005. REFUTED if foreign-born share rise < 10pp OR TFP gain insignificant against pre-trend.
  • Falsification test: event_study_israel_soviet_absorption
  • Event year: 1989

Estimate

  • shape: single_country_its
  • country: ISR
  • event_year: 1989
  • n_pre: 4
  • n_post: 22
  • pre_trend_slope: 0.03077218449434685
  • pre_trend_intercept: -51.24864153271295
  • pre_residual_sd: 0.012121020498351415
  • end_year: 2010
  • end_year_actual: 10.260306088665008
  • end_year_counterfactual: 10.603449300924218
  • end_year_gap: -0.34314321225921063
  • mean_post_gap: -0.18121994614003578
  • z_end: -28.309762557194063
  • z_mean: -14.950881913340842
  • post_period_years: [1989, 2010]

Variables resolved

  • maddison:mpd2020 → real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • un_desa:international_migrant_stock → foreign_born_share_population (outcome, publisher=un_desa, n=16)
  • pwt:rtfpna → total_factor_productivity (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZS → tertiary_attainment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1403)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10493)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator pulses 1989-1994 for ISR (treatment, name=soviet_inflow_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T08:07:41+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.