IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_india_demographic_transition_realised

India's demographic transition 1990-2050 was projected (UN-DESA 1990s/2000s) to deliver a large dividend to per-capita growth.

The hypothesis tests whether realised per-capita growth 1990-2023 has tracked the Bloom-Williamson predicted dividend or has fallen short. Specifically, the hypothesis predicts realised per-capita growth attributable to working- age share gains is below the predicted dividend by at least 30 percent, suggesting India has under-utilised the window relative to East-Asian comparators.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/demo_india_demographic_transition_realised

SUPPORTED — shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=0.374, ratio=1.45; threshold 30.0%, observed 37.4%

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=0.374, ratio=1.45; threshold 30.0%, observed 37.4%

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Working age population share
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/demo_india_demographic_transition_realised
1007550250199020072023INDCHNIDNVNMBGDPAKPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 8 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_india_demographic_transition_realised. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_india_demographic_transition_realised/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:38Z

India's demographic transition 1990-2050 was projected (UN-DESA 1990s/2000s) to deliver a large dividend to per-capita growth. The hypothesis tests whether realised per-capita growth 1990-2023 has tracked the Bloom-Williamson predicted dividend or has fallen short. Specifically, the hypothesis predicts realised per-capita growth attributable to working- age share gains is below the predicted dividend by at least 30 percent, suggesting India has under-utilised the window relative to East-Asian comparators.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if India's realised per-capita growth attributable to working-age channel is at least 30% below the comparator Asian-tiger benchmark for similar working-age share rises. REFUTED if India tracks within 20% of the Asian-tiger benchmark or exceeds it.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_india_dividend_vs_asia_benchmark
threshold: india_dividend_underperformance >= 0.30

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
8 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Decompose India's per-capita growth into working-age-share component vs per-worker productivity growth; benchmark working-age-share contribution against comparator Asian-tiger trajectories. Report counterfactual per-capita growth had India matched Asian-tiger working-age-to-employment translation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
working_age_population_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZStier 2
level
lfp_total
control
ilostat:EAP_2WAP_SEX_AGE_RTtier 2
level
gross_capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_india_demographic_transition_realised

Verdict: SUPPORTED — shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=0.374, ratio=1.45; threshold 30.0%, observed 37.4%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's demographic transition 1990-2050 was projected (UN-DESA 1990s/2000s) to deliver a large dividend to per-capita growth. The hypothesis tests whether realised per-capita growth 1990-2023 has tracked the Bloom-Williamson predicted dividend or has fallen short. Specifically, the hypothesis predicts realised per-capita growth attributable to working- age share gains is below the predicted dividend by at least 30 percent, suggesting India has under-utilised the window relative to East-Asian comparators.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if India's realised per-capita growth attributable to working-age channel is at least 30% below the comparator Asian-tiger benchmark for similar working-age share rises. REFUTED if India tracks within 20% of the Asian-tiger benchmark or exceeds it.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_india_dividend_vs_asia_benchmark

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: IND
  • treatment_value: 4.390382829016827
  • donor_pool_median: 3.021734248040243
  • ratio: 1.4529347946015527
  • log_diff: 0.37358550718857075
  • n_donor_countries: 7
  • end_year_window: [2018, 2023]

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 30.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13961)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS → working_age_population_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17030)
  • ilostat:EAP_2WAP_SEX_AGE_RT → lfp_total (controls, publisher=ilostat, n=7704)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10493)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T08:07:38+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.