IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_france_pied_noir_absorption

France absorbed approximately 800,000-1,000,000 pied-noir repatriates from Algeria in 1962-1963, equivalent to roughly 2% of the French population.

The hypothesis tests whether the rapid inflow caused (a) measurable labour-market disruption in destination regions over 1962-1970, and (b) whether absorption was relatively rapid (within 10 years) by per-capita-output and employment-rate metrics, supporting the Hunt (1992) finding of fast convergence.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_france_pied_noir_absorption

PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=+2544, z=+18; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether pied noir event indicator is actually linked to better or worse real income per capita growth from 1955 to 1980.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=ITS, mean_gap=+2544, z=+18; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1955 to 1980, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Pied noir event indicator
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_france_pied_noir_absorption
1007550250195519681980FRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 1 sampled countries over 1955–1980.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_france_pied_noir_absorption. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_france_pied_noir_absorption/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:41Z

France absorbed approximately 800,000-1,000,000 pied-noir repatriates from Algeria in 1962-1963, equivalent to roughly 2% of the French population. The hypothesis tests whether the rapid inflow caused (a) measurable labour-market disruption in destination regions over 1962-1970, and (b) whether absorption was relatively rapid (within 10 years) by per-capita-output and employment-rate metrics, supporting the Hunt (1992) finding of fast convergence.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if French per-capita growth and unemployment trajectories show no significant deviation from pre-event trend within 10 years (Hunt 1992 pattern), with deviation confidence band including zero. REFUTED if a sustained negative deviation in per-capita growth or sustained unemployment-rise persists past 1972.

formal test & threshold
test:      event_study_pied_noir_absorption_1962
threshold: deviation_10yr_p > 0.05 AND no_persistent_unemployment_rise

Method

Template
event_study
Sample
1 countries · 1955 – 1980
Evidence type
descriptive

Single-country event-study around 1962-1963; report deviation from pre-event trajectory in GDP-per-capita growth and unemployment. Pre-period 1955-1961, event 1962-1963, post-period 1964-1972.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
yoy_log_diff
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
pied_noir_event_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator pulses 1962-1963; population-share inflow ~2%.tier 5
indicator
real_gdp_growth_total
control
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
yoy_log_diff

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_france_pied_noir_absorption

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=+2544, z=+18; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: France absorbed approximately 800,000-1,000,000 pied-noir repatriates from Algeria in 1962-1963, equivalent to roughly 2% of the French population. The hypothesis tests whether the rapid inflow caused (a) measurable labour-market disruption in destination regions over 1962-1970, and (b) whether absorption was relatively rapid (within 10 years) by per-capita-output and employment-rate metrics, supporting the Hunt (1992) finding of fast convergence.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if French per-capita growth and unemployment trajectories show no significant deviation from pre-event trend within 10 years (Hunt 1992 pattern), with deviation confidence band including zero. REFUTED if a sustained negative deviation in per-capita growth or sustained unemployment-rise persists past 1972.
  • Falsification test: event_study_pied_noir_absorption_1962
  • Event year: 1962

Estimate

  • shape: single_country_its
  • country: FRA
  • event_year: 1962
  • n_pre: 7
  • n_post: 19
  • pre_trend_slope: 379.8571428571968
  • pre_trend_intercept: -732748.4285715345
  • pre_residual_sd: 143.94112553068814
  • end_year: 1980
  • end_year_actual: 23537.0
  • end_year_counterfactual: 19368.714285715134
  • end_year_gap: 4168.285714284866
  • mean_post_gap: 2544.3684210522456
  • z_end: 28.95826817330389
  • z_mean: 17.676452172174994
  • post_period_years: [1962, 1980]

Variables resolved

  • maddison:mpd2020 → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8106)
  • maddison:mpd2020 → real_gdp_growth_total (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator pulses 1962-1963; population-share inflow ~2%. (treatment, name=pied_noir_event_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T08:07:41+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.