IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_education_attainment_wage_premium_panel

Across OECD countries 1995-2023, the tertiary-education wage premium (median wage of tertiary-attainment workers / median wage of upper-secondary workers) varies substantially cross-country, and is positively associated with rate of skill-biased technical change proxies (ICT capital share).

The hypothesis predicts the cross-country average tertiary premium exceeds 1.4 and shows a small positive trend over the period despite massive tertiary-attainment expansion (refuting the "credential inflation" zero-trend prediction).

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/demo_education_attainment_wage_premium_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.EDU.IMEP,DSD_EAG_EARNINGS@DF_EAG_EARNINGS,1.0']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether tertiary attainment share is actually linked to better or worse tertiary wage premium from 1995 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.EDU.IMEP,DSD_EAG_EARNINGS@DF_EAG_EARNINGS,1.0']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 25 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tertiary attainment share
What we checked
  • Tertiary wage premium
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_education_attainment_wage_premium_panel
1007550250199520092023USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tertiary_wage_premium across 25 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_education_attainment_wage_premium_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_education_attainment_wage_premium_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:34Z

Across OECD countries 1995-2023, the tertiary-education wage premium (median wage of tertiary-attainment workers / median wage of upper-secondary workers) varies substantially cross-country, and is positively associated with rate of skill-biased technical change proxies (ICT capital share). The hypothesis predicts the cross-country average tertiary premium exceeds 1.4 and shows a small positive trend over the period despite massive tertiary-attainment expansion (refuting the "credential inflation" zero-trend prediction).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if cross-country-cross-year average tertiary premium > 1.4 AND year fixed effects show non-negative trend (slope >= 0 with p > 0.05 for negative-trend rejection). REFUTED if average premium < 1.3 or year-FE slope significantly negative at p<0.05.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_tertiary_premium_with_trend_test
threshold: mean_premium >= 1.4 AND year_fe_slope >= 0

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
25 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tertiary_wage_premium
outcome
oecd:OECD.EDU.IMEPtier 2
ratio
tertiary_attainment_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_education_attainment_wage_premium_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.EDU.IMEP,DSD_EAG_EARNINGS@DF_EAG_EARNINGS,1.0']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across OECD countries 1995-2023, the tertiary-education wage premium (median wage of tertiary-attainment workers / median wage of upper-secondary workers) varies substantially cross-country, and is positively associated with rate of skill-biased technical change proxies (ICT capital share). The hypothesis predicts the cross-country average tertiary premium exceeds 1.4 and shows a small positive trend over the period despite massive tertiary-attainment expansion (refuting the "credential inflation" zero-trend prediction).
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if cross-country-cross-year average tertiary premium > 1.4 AND year fixed effects show non-negative trend (slope >= 0 with p > 0.05 for negative-trend rejection). REFUTED if average premium < 1.3 or year-FE slope significantly negative at p<0.05.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_tertiary_premium_with_trend_test

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.EDU.IMEP,DSD_EAG_EARNINGS@DF_EAG_EARNINGS,1.0']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZS → tertiary_attainment_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1403)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:OECD.EDU.IMEP,DSD_EAG_EARNINGS@DF_EAG_EARNINGS,1.0 (outcome, name=tertiary_wage_premium) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.